Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T15:43:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8db2…f8a2 crypto 985 markets active 0h ago coverage 67d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 66d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$13,530 (-26%) realized −$13,530 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate60%590W / 395L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day41.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 67d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% +$829
weather 5% −$2
other 1% −$183
sports 1% +$87
economics 1% −$120
politics 0% −$158
world 0% +$24
tech 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 +1.8% -7.9% 52% 52% -12.0%
≤30d 189 -5.1% -14.1% 54% 54% -2.2%
≤90d 985 -1.7% -11.1% 60% 41% -9.1%
all 985 -1.7% -11.1% 60% 41% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.1% 41% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -19.6% 36% -17.8%
15% -27.4% 33% -25.7%
20% -34.5% 28% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$35 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13,530
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses590 / 395
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)985 / 985
History coverage67d ⚠
Avg bet$53
Trades / day41.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 985 Trades
no open positions (169 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 24 $41 −$39 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 24 $41 −$39 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 24 $40 +$28 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 24 $34 +$12 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 24 $41 −$39 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 24 $267 +$111 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 24 $287 −$274 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 24 $356 +$108 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 24 $40 +$20 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 24 $163 −$157 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 24 $41 −$39 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 24 $41 −$39 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 24 $41 −$39 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 23 $40 +$13 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 23 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 23 $42 +$383 +914%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 23 $326 −$314 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 23 $41 −$39 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 23 $320 +$151 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 23 $41 +$31 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 23 $235 +$39 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 23 $40 +$23 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 23 $321 +$179 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 23 $40 +$15 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 23 $41 −$39 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 22 $40 +$26 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 22 $40 −$39 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 22 $41 −$39 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 22 $41 −$39 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 22 $41 −$39 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 22 $41 +$55 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 22 $41 +$46 +114%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 22 $326 −$312 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 22 $40 +$15 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 22 $122 −$118 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 22 $41 +$68 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 22 $40 +$17 +43%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 22 $204 +$301 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 22 $39 +$7 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 22 $28 +$8 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 22 $122 −$118 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 22 $277 +$64 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 22 $40 −$39 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 19 $285 +$318 +112%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $322 +$228 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $40 −$39 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 19 $39 −$39 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 19 $41 +$47 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $41 −$39 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $40 −$39 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $41 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $41 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $40 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $41 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $32 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $32 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $32 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $32 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $32 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $32 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $33 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $40 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $41 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $41 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $41 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $41 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $41 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $41 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $41 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $40 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $39 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $39 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $40 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $40 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $40 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $40 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $40 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $39 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records