Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:47:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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8D 0x8db2…d0f5 weather 763 markets active 1h ago coverage 194d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 194d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$153 (-1%) realized −$94 · open −$59
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate26%196W / 548L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day16.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days−$80
14 days−$137
30 days+$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 64% −$565
other 16% −$11
crypto 12% +$35
sports 3% −$39
politics 3% +$306
culture 3% −$153
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 136 -19.8% -27.4% 13% 12% -16.7%
≤30d 252 -18.9% -26.6% 17% 17% -13.2%
≤90d 410 -21.0% -28.6% 21% 20% -10.6%
all 744 -13.8% -22.0% 26% 25% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.0% 25% -13.0%
10% -29.4% 24% -21.3%
15% -36.3% 23% -28.9%
20% -42.5% 22% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$14 · ×2.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

194d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$94
Unrealized−$59
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses196 / 548
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions11
Markets (closed)744 / 763
History coverage194d ⚠
Avg bet$20
Trades / day16.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 744 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will India have an Ebola case in 2026? Yes 30¢ 24¢ $29 $24 −$6 (-20%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 17? Yes 26¢ 5¢ $26 $5 −$22 (-83%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 17? Yes 7¢ 1¢ $7 $1 −$6 (-89%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? Yes 15¢ 1¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-95%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-70%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? No 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-80%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? No 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-85%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 17? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-83%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? No 7¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 17? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 414 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Nuclear weapon detonation in 2025? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $31 +$57 +182%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $17 +$33 +200%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $14 +$36 +257%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 16? Jun 16 $14 +$32 +229%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $19 +$29 +157%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 16? Jun 16 $14 −$2 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $12 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 +$29 +143%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 14 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 44m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 47m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 49m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 54m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 1¢ $1 55m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 1¢ $0 55m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 1¢ $0 55m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 56m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 1¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 17? BUY Yes 28¢ $15 3h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 88¢ $88 3h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 40¢ $6 3h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 40¢ $14 3h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 17? BUY Yes 24¢ $6 3h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 17? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 95¢ $9 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 95¢ $35 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 95¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $50 4h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 17? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 5h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 28¢ $14 5h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 31¢ $17 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 5h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 17? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 22¢ $7 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.01 · official $29.86 (match) · 3500 history records