Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:36:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8db1…6234 crypto 882 markets active 0h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate63%558W / 324L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$238
14 days−$335
30 days−$265
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$261
finance 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 95 -17.2% -25.0% 33% 33% -26.8%
≤30d 882 -2.6% -11.8% 63% 36% -11.8%
≤90d 882 -2.6% -11.8% 63% 36% -11.8%
all 882 -2.6% -11.8% 63% 36% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 36% -11.8%
10% -20.3% 20% -20.2%
15% -28.0% 18% -27.9%
20% -35.0% 15% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$9 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses558 / 324
Open positions0
Markets (closed)882 / 882
History coverage156d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 882 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$2 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$6 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$5 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$3 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$5 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$3 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$2 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$3 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$3 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$4 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$2 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$5 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$3 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$3 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$6 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$3 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$3 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$3 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $7 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $7 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $8 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $9 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $14 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $12 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $13 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $15 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2156 history records