Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:09:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8D
0x8daf…ce0a
crypto · 407 markets active 1h ago
2.0score
−$1,691 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,692 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$45
Realized−$1,692
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses322 / 82
Open positions3
Markets (closed)404 / 407
History coverage188d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 3 History 404 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 96¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+5%)
Will Juanma Moreno be the next President of Andalusia following the regional election? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 64¢ 60¢ $9 $8 −$0 (-5%)
Pelicans vs. Hornets Pelicans 71¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - February 1, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Up 95¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - February 4, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Down 89¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-02-01? Yes 93¢ 0¢ $110 $0 −$110 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 7PM ET Down 82¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - January 8, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - January 8, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026? No 54¢ 0¢ $91 $0 −$91 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 8? Down 74¢ 0¢ $57 $0 −$57 (-100%)
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $217 $0 −$217 (-100%)
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 31? No 90¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - January 29, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $99 $0 −$99 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $218 $0 −$218 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-01-07? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will "Venezuela" or "Maduro" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes? Yes 74¢ 0¢ $116 $0 −$116 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +14%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 11 $3 $0 +3%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $3 +$1 +22%
Will Cádiz CF win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $5 +$3 +65%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $4 +$1 +19%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 19 $8 +$1 +6%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 03 $1 −$1 -96%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-02-14? Feb 14 $138 −$138 -100%
Michigan State Spartans vs. Wisconsin Badgers Feb 14 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Feb 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-12? Feb 13 $127 +$10 +8%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-11? Feb 12 $109 +$18 +17%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-02-11? Feb 11 $9 $0 +2%
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31? Feb 11 $978 −$649 -66%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 11, 11AM ET Feb 11 $9 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Feb 11 $8 $0 +2%
Will Deportivo Táchira FC win on 2026-02-10? Feb 11 $2 +$1 +67%
Will Modena FC 2018 win on 2026-02-10? Feb 11 $4 +$1 +25%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-10? Feb 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Navy Midshipmen vs. Bucknell Bison Feb 10 $8 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 9, 2PM ET Feb 09 $3 $0 +1%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $19 +$9 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 6? Feb 06 $34 −$34 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 6, 3AM ET Feb 06 $230 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 6PM ET Feb 06 $12 +$3 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 7PM ET Feb 06 $50 −$50 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 5, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Feb 05 $271 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 3PM ET Feb 05 $271 +$1 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 5, 2PM ET Feb 05 $266 +$5 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down on February 5? Feb 05 $13 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 5? Feb 05 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 1PM ET Feb 05 $200 −$130 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 12PM ET Feb 05 $349 +$10 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 11AM ET Feb 05 $369 +$31 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Feb 05 $316 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 7AM ET Feb 05 $100 +$12 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 5, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Feb 05 $298 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Feb 05 $289 +$9 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Feb 05 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 7PM ET Feb 05 $10 −$4 -40%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 4, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Feb 04 $321 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Feb 04 $305 +$10 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Feb 04 $314 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 4PM ET Feb 04 $289 +$16 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Feb 04 $23 −$23 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 4, 3PM ET Feb 04 $20 +$3 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 4, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Feb 04 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 3PM ET Feb 04 $20 +$4 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 79% +$130
other 12% −$1,552
finance 2% −$52
sports 2% +$28
politics 2% −$27
tech 1% −$62
world 1% −$34
culture 0% −$122
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $9 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 99¢ $3 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 87¢ $5 2d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $25 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 97¢ $5 20d
Will Cádiz CF win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? BUY No 94¢ $8 40d
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-03? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 41d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 41d
Will Juanma Moreno be the next President of Andalusia following the re BUY Yes 98¢ $10 41d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $3 41d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 81¢ $4 41d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 96¢ $3 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 41d
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-02-14? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 119d
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-02-14? BUY Yes 88¢ $128 119d
Michigan State Spartans vs. Wisconsin Badgers BUY Wisconsin Badgers 97¢ $10 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 120d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-12? BUY Yes 92¢ $27 121d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-12? BUY Yes 92¢ $100 121d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-11? BUY Yes 96¢ $9 122d
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-02-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 122d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-11? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 122d
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $100 122d
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-02-11? BUY Yes 98¢ $9 122d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 11, 11AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $9 122d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $8 122d
Will Deportivo Táchira FC win on 2026-02-10? BUY Yes 60¢ $2 123d
Will Modena FC 2018 win on 2026-02-10? BUY Yes 80¢ $4 123d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-10? BUY Yes 65¢ $2 123d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +8.7% -1.6% 100% 50% -0.3%
≤30d 6 +21.7% +10.1% 100% 67% +9.9%
≤90d 9 +3.7% -6.2% 89% 44% +1.0%
all 404 -6.4% -15.3% 80% 23% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 23% -11.8%
10% -23.4% 9% -20.3%
15% -30.8% 3% -28.0%
20% -37.6% 2% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.56 · official $44.56 (match) · 974 history records