Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:40:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
8D 0x8daf…2533 sports 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 346d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-1%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$9
sports 22% −$30
crypto 14% +$29
politics 10% +$7
economics 10% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-38.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +126.9% +105.3% 100% 100% +105.3%
≤90d 4 +18.8% +7.5% 75% 50% +28.8%
all 7 -32.1% -38.6% 43% 29% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.6% 29% -11.5%
10% -44.5% 29% -20.0%
15% -49.8% 29% -27.7%
20% -54.8% 14% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +42% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$10 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

346d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage346d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $23 +$29 +127%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 09 $16 +$7 +41%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner Apr 12 $15 −$10 -65%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Apr 11 $15 +$1 +8%
FIFA Club World Cup: Fluminense vs. Chelsea (To Advance) Jul 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Will PSG win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 08 $17 −$9 -51%
Will Fluminense vs. Chelsea end in a draw after regulation time? Jul 08 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.71 · official $50.71 (match) · 15 history records