Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:57:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8daf…ef60 other 385 markets active 1h ago coverage 75d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 74d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,416 (-4%) realized −$5,389 · open −$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate19%72W / 299L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$399per market
Trades / day40.5pace
Fees−$425est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$4,451now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 75d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$368
politics 28% −$353
other 14% −$655
sports 10% −$446
finance 2% −$221
tech 2% −$122
crypto 1% −$69
culture 1% −$222
weather 0% −$5
economics 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -41.2% -46.8% 5% 2% -17.3%
≤30d 126 -11.4% -19.9% 17% 7% -12.5%
≤90d 371 -7.5% -16.3% 19% 5% -11.2%
all 371 -7.5% -16.3% 19% 5% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.3% 5% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -24.3% 5% -19.7%
15% -31.6% 5% -27.4%
20% -38.3% 4% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 57% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$503) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$13 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$4,451
Realized−$5,389
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses72 / 299
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$425
Open positions29
Markets (closed)371 / 385
History coverage75d ⚠
Avg bet$399
Trades / day40.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 371 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $992 $994 +$2 (+0%)
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $994 $993 −$1 (-0%)
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $942 $942 −$0 (-0%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 92¢ 93¢ $740 $747 +$7 (+1%)
2026 Balance of Power: Other No 99¢ 99¢ $496 $497 +$1 (+0%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 38¢ $49 $76 +$26 (+54%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 15¢ $35 $44 +$9 (+25%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 63¢ 100¢ $18 $29 +$11 (+58%)
Will the announcers say "Goal" 40+ times during the South Africa vs South Korea FIFA World Cup Match? No 28¢ 18¢ $28 $18 −$10 (-34%)
Will the announcers say "Record" during the South Africa vs South Korea FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+0%)
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 67¢ 80¢ $13 $16 +$3 (+20%)
Will the announcers say "Goal" 40+ times during the Turkiye vs USA FIFA World Cup Match? No 41¢ 23¢ $20 $12 −$9 (-44%)
Will the announcers say "Goal" 40+ times during the Ecuador vs Germany FIFA World Cup Match? No 42¢ 22¢ $21 $11 −$10 (-46%)
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026? No 10¢ 24¢ $4 $10 +$6 (+153%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-25%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $8 $5 −$3 (-38%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $14 $5 −$9 (-64%)
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? No 27¢ 34¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+26%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $12 $3 −$9 (-75%)
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Jim Priest be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? Yes 13¢ 7¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-43%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $8 $1 −$6 (-83%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 51 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Qatar Open: Jakub Mensik vs Jannik Sinner Jun 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Will India win? Jun 24 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-17? Jun 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Qatar Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Arthur Fils Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-25? Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Oeiras 2: Viktorija Golubic vs Daria Snigur Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Matteo Berrettini vs Alexander Zverev Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04? Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Cherbourg: Daniil Glinka vs Dan Added Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Credit One Charleston Open: Viktoriya Tomova vs Jennifer Brady Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Antalya 2: Anastasia Gasanova vs Panna Udvardy Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Miami Open: Valentin Vacherot vs Arthur Fils Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $12 mi Jun 24 $118 −$118 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-04? Jun 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 Jun 24 $168 −$5 -3%
Will the announcers say "Comeback” or “Come Back" during the South Afr Jun 24 $30 −$1 -4%
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 24 $132 −$8 -6%
Will the announcers say "Temperature" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA Jun 24 $23 −$1 -3%
Will Nike be the shirt manufacturer of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Champio Jun 24 $168 −$8 -5%
Will the announcers say "Foul" 10+ times during the Czechia vs Mexico Jun 24 $24 −$1 -3%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 24 $841 −$15 -2%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i Jun 23 $127 −$18 -14%
Will David Trone be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? Jun 23 $150 −$15 -10%
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 23 $35 −$4 -11%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 23 $936 −$13 -1%
Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Spain? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $13 −$13 -99%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $962 −$133 -14%
Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff b Jun 19 $20 −$14 -71%
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 19 $144 −$1 -1%
Will the announcers say "Hattrick / Hat Trick" during the Spain vs Sau Jun 19 $34 −$8 -23%
Will Julian Alvarez stay at Atletico Madrid? Jun 19 $21 −$1 -4%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff Jun 19 $200 −$6 -3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $164 −$1 -1%
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio Jun 18 $125 −$5 -4%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo Jun 18 $234 −$3 -1%
Will Douglas Lumsden win the 2026 Aberdeen South by-election? Jun 18 $57 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $100 −$22 -22%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 18 $14 +$48 +328%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 17 $299 −$22 -8%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $203 +$4 +2%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 17 $778 −$30 -4%
Will Emiliano Martinez stay at Aston Villa? Jun 17 $11 $0 -1%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 17 $30 −$4 -15%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 16 $86 −$2 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 16 $1,040 −$24 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 16 $1,267 −$23 -2%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 16 $447 −$3 -1%
Rainbow Six Siege: Barbie Boys vs 6Targets Esports (BO1) - Asia Pacifi Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 SELL No 43¢ $163 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 BUY No 43¢ $168 1h
Will the announcers say "Comeback” or “Come Back" during the South Afr SELL Yes 58¢ $29 1h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL No 42¢ $27 1h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL No 42¢ $55 2h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL No 42¢ $1 2h
Will the announcers say "Record" during the South Africa vs South Kore BUY Yes 34¢ $17 2h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 46¢ $91 2h
Will the announcers say "Comeback” or “Come Back" during the South Afr BUY Yes 60¢ $30 2h
Will the announcers say "Temperature" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA SELL Yes 45¢ $8 2h
Will the announcers say "Temperature" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA SELL Yes 46¢ $15 2h
Will the announcers say "Temperature" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA BUY Yes 46¢ $23 2h
Will Nike be the shirt manufacturer of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Champio SELL Yes 54¢ $160 2h
Will the announcers say "Foul" 10+ times during the Czechia vs Mexico SELL No 48¢ $7 2h
Will the announcers say "Foul" 10+ times during the Czechia vs Mexico SELL No 49¢ $17 2h
Will Nike be the shirt manufacturer of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Champio BUY Yes 56¢ $168 2h
Will the announcers say "Foul" 10+ times during the Czechia vs Mexico BUY No 49¢ $6 2h
Will the announcers say "Foul" 10+ times during the Czechia vs Mexico BUY No 49¢ $18 2h
Will the announcers say "Goal" 40+ times during the Turkiye vs USA FIF BUY No 41¢ $20 2h
Will the announcers say "Goal" 40+ times during the South Africa vs So BUY No 28¢ $28 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 76¢ $73 2h
Will the announcers say "Goal" 40+ times during the Ecuador vs Germany BUY No 42¢ $21 2h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL No 47¢ $41 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 76¢ $74 2h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 46¢ $17 2h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 47¢ $23 2h
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 14h
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 14h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i SELL Yes 58¢ $4 21h
Will David Trone be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? SELL Yes 14¢ $135 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,451.10 · official $4,450.85 (match) · 3500 history records