Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:16:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8dae…fff9 other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,607 (-19%) realized −$14,858 · open +$10,251
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%2W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,255per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$274est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$17,991now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$7,802
other 31% −$6,487
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-54.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -49.8% -54.6% 22% 22% -60.9%
≤30d 9 -49.8% -54.6% 22% 22% -60.9%
≤90d 9 -49.8% -54.6% 22% 22% -60.9%
all 9 -49.8% -54.6% 22% 22% -60.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -54.6% 22% -60.9%
10% -58.9% 22% -64.6%
15% -62.9% 22% -68.0%
20% -66.5% 22% -71.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -57% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -50% · $-wt -57% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,638 vs −$1,744 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$17,991
Realized−$14,858
Unrealized+$10,251
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses2 / 7
Est. fees paid−$274
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage3d
Avg bet$2,255
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Yes 43¢ 100¢ $7,740 $17,991 +$10,251 (+132%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $4,075 −$4,009 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $2,030 −$2,000 -98%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 26 $509 −$500 -98%
Australia leading at halftime? Jun 26 $512 −$500 -98%
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $1,715 −$1,715 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $503 +$869 +173%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $3,030 +$2,406 +79%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $2,567 −$2,532 -99%
Korea Republic leading at halftime? Jun 25 $971 −$955 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $7,872 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $2,032 6h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $2,043 23h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $2,030 27h
United States leading at halftime? BUY Yes 37¢ $509 27h
Australia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 20¢ $512 27h
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 49¢ $74 29h
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 49¢ $19 29h
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 49¢ $3 29h
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 49¢ $10 29h
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 49¢ $12 29h
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 49¢ $14 29h
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 49¢ $20 29h
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1,544 29h
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 49¢ $20 29h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $3,030 44h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 36¢ $503 44h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 37¢ $509 2d
Korea Republic leading at halftime? BUY Yes 43¢ $971 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $2,058 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- BUY 33¢ $1,020 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17,991.00 · official $17,991.00 (match) · 25 history records