Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:02:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
8D 0x8dad…c5a2 crypto 311 markets active 1h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$904 (+5%) realized +$904 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate52%160W / 150L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$455
7 days+$455
14 days+$455
30 days+$344
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$114
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 +7.3% -2.9% 60% 58% +5.0%
≤30d 154 +11.0% +0.4% 52% 49% -4.6%
≤90d 166 +8.1% -2.2% 51% 48% -8.5%
all 310 +2.2% -7.5% 52% 50% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 50% -8.3%
10% -16.3% 49% -17.1%
15% -24.4% 45% -25.1%
20% -31.8% 40% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$48 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$904
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses160 / 150
Open positions0
Markets (closed)310 / 311
History coverage93d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 310 Trades
no open positions (123 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $211 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $86 +$223 +258%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $42 +$32 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $41 +$23 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$11 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$24 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$16 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$19 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$12 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$12 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$9 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $130 −$50 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $41 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $27 +$12 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$7 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $52 +$34 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $104 +$17 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $31 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $104 +$96 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $104 +$57 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $62 +$25 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $42 +$19 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $209 +$64 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$21 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $104 +$95 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $104 +$61 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 14 $103 +$68 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $104 +$66 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $129 +$109 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $231 −$3 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$5 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $36 −$15 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$29 +112%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $106 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $53 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $52 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $309 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $7 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $26 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $26 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $26 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $11 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $0 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $64 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $15 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $16 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $16 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $21 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $55 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $31 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $42 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $45 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 704 history records