Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:50:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8dab…b92f other 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 487d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$8 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate27%13W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$4
other 35% −$10
politics 7% $0
economics 4% $0
sports 4% +$8
tech 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.6% -10.1% 20% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 15 -0.9% -10.4% 13% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 15 -0.9% -10.4% 13% 0% -10.3%
all 48 -1.5% -10.9% 27% 4% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 4% -10.3%
10% -19.4% 4% -18.8%
15% -27.2% 2% -26.7%
20% -34.4% 2% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

487d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses13 / 35
Open positions2
Markets (closed)48 / 50
History coverage487d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? No 96¢ 98¢ $39 $39 +$1 (+2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 52¢ 56¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $39 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $78 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $39 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $75 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 17 $23 −$1 -3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $73 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $36 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $11 $0 -4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $38 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $36 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 30 $1 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $13 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 29 $30 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $18 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 27 $43 −$3 -7%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Dec 09 $6 +$2 +27%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $6 $0 +5%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Google have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 26 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 26 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 26 $14 $0 -1%
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? Jul 26 $6 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 25 $12 $0 -0%
Will GPT-5 be released by July 31? Jul 25 $6 $0 -2%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 25 $6 $0 -0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair in 2025? Jul 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jul 24 $8 $0 +1%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jul 24 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? Jul 05 $5 $0 -3%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 05 $4 $0 -0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? Jul 05 $3 $0 -6%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 04 $11 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jul 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will Al-Hilal win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 03 $8 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Jun 26 $7 $0 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +3%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $2 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21? Mar 21 $15 −$10 -62%
Will the AfD win between 20% and 22% of the vote in the German electio Mar 15 $19 $0 +1%
Trail Blazers vs. 76ers Mar 03 $19 $0 -2%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-03-04? Mar 03 $19 $0 +0%
Alabama vs. Missouri Mar 03 $11 +$8 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $39 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $39 9h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $39 10h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $39 15h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $39 17h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $39 21h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $39 21h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $39 26h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $39 28h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $35 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $2 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $34 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $39 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $24 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $15 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $18 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $4 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $23 2d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $32 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $4 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $14 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $22 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $4 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $4 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $28 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $16 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $21 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $11 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.36 · official $39.12 (match) · 163 history records