Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:23:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8dab…9121 sports 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$36 (-3%) realized −$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate47%7W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day14.5pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$55
other 5% +$2
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -2.2% -11.5% 47% 40% -13.0%
≤30d 15 -2.2% -11.5% 47% 40% -13.0%
≤90d 15 -2.2% -11.5% 47% 40% -13.0%
all 15 -2.2% -11.5% 47% 40% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 40% -13.0%
10% -20.0% 33% -21.4%
15% -27.7% 27% -29.0%
20% -34.8% 13% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 43% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -44% → late +35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$13 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses7 / 8
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage3d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day14.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $22 +$9 +42%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $35 −$1 -2%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $7 +$1 +17%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$12 +114%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $11 +$7 +64%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $21 +$9 +45%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 14 $1,075 −$75 -7%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $73 +$2 +3%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $22 −$12 -55%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $39 +$11 +27%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $5 −$1 -26%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $40 $0 -1%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1 $0 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $11 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 52¢ $0 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 52¢ $11 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 73¢ $7 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 73¢ $1 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 73¢ $15 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 73¢ $12 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 16¢ $1 2h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 38¢ $6 2h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 38¢ $1 2h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $7 16h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $10 16h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $35 16h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $10 27h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 90¢ $6 27h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 90¢ $7 27h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 90¢ $6 27h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 69¢ $21 27h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $5 28h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $6 28h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 12¢ $12 42h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 89¢ $10 42h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 93¢ $47 43h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 25¢ $5 43h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 25¢ $3 43h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 18¢ $5 43h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 25¢ $5 43h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 62¢ $26 45h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 46h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 78¢ $39 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 46 history records