Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:58:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8da7…02e1 sports 265 markets active 11h ago coverage 253d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,039 (-10%) realized −$1,057 · open +$18
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate73%189W / 70L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$145now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3
14 days+$0
30 days−$548
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% −$198
other 23% −$731
world 19% −$11
crypto 7% −$113
politics 2% −$12
tech 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +5.7% -4.3% 50% 50% -10.9%
≤30d 13 -10.3% -18.8% 46% 38% -42.1%
≤90d 75 -4.6% -13.7% 65% 49% -34.9%
all 259 +2.6% -7.1% 73% 53% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 53% -19.2%
10% -16.0% 30% -26.9%
15% -24.1% 19% -34.0%
20% -31.6% 12% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$26 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

253d coverage
Net worth$145
Realized−$1,057
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses189 / 70
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions4
Markets (closed)259 / 265
History coverage253d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 259 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Enzo Maresca be the next manager of Manchester City FC? Yes 91¢ 99¢ $62 $67 +$5 (+8%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Messi 63¢ 86¢ $34 $48 +$13 (+38%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $25 $26 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $33 +$7 +23%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 AND Will South Africa win on 2026-06- Jun 11 $1 $0 +21%
Will Shivon Zilis be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 10 $30 −$5 -16%
Will Rabby launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 10 $115 −$5 -5%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 09 $2 −$1 -52%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $3 −$1 -42%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $10 +$5 +57%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $12 +$8 +72%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? May 28 $3 +$2 +49%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? May 26 $112 −$112 -100%
FDA approves Cingulate's Ctx-1301? May 24 $446 −$446 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 23 $664 −$8 -1%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 4.5 May 18 $93 +$7 +7%
Real Madrid CF vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 5.5 May 14 $47 +$3 +6%
Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 1.5 May 13 $4 +$1 +22%
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Levante UD: O/U 4.5 May 12 $4 −$4 -100%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5 May 10 $3 +$2 +44%
Will Galatasaray win the Süper Lig? May 09 $18 +$2 +8%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5 May 06 $46 $0 -0%
Aston Villa FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 1.5 May 03 $4 +$1 +24%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 29 $3 +$1 +49%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Apr 28 $54 −$3 -5%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 28 $13 $0 +0%
Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Zohran" or "Mamdani" this week? Apr 27 $64 −$1 -2%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 4.5 Apr 27 $188 −$188 -100%
Will Drake feature Julia Wolf on ICEMAN? Apr 27 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Kim Doo-kyum win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election? Apr 25 $23 −$1 -3%
Will Kim Sang-wook win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election? Apr 24 $38 $0 +0%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 4.5 Apr 23 $4 +$1 +13%
FC Barcelona vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 4.5 Apr 23 $43 +$7 +16%
Real Madrid CF vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 4.5 Apr 22 $4 +$1 +36%
Will Starmer say "Thank" 10+ times during the next Prime Minister's Qu Apr 22 $7 +$8 +129%
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 4.5 Apr 19 $7 +$1 +14%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 4.5 Apr 19 $44 +$6 +14%
Will Starmer say "Thank you" 10+ times during the next Prime Minister' Apr 19 $41 −$8 -20%
FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5 Apr 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 4.5 Apr 15 $7 +$3 +39%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 4.5 Apr 15 $3 +$2 +47%
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 4.5 Apr 12 $200 +$13 +6%
Sunderland AFC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 12 $5 $0 +4%
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 12 $8 +$1 +16%
Liverpool FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 11 $4 +$1 +30%
FC Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 1.5 Apr 09 $184 +$24 +13%
Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5 Apr 08 $4 +$1 +25%
Sporting CP vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 08 $22 −$3 -14%
SC Freiburg vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5 Apr 05 $17 −$17 -100%
RCD Mallorca vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 1.5 Apr 05 $8 +$2 +24%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 1.5 Apr 04 $87 +$1 +1%
SC Freiburg vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 1.5 Apr 04 $4 +$1 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 03 $174 −$111 -63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 53¢ $3 11h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY 55¢ $3 41h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 80¢ $16 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 83¢ $17 2d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 AND Will South Africa win on 2026-06- BUY 82¢ $1 5d
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo BUY Messi 63¢ $32 5d
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo BUY Messi 58¢ $3 6d
Will Shivon Zilis be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' SELL Yes 43¢ $25 6d
Will Rabby launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL No 61¢ $12 6d
Will Shivon Zilis be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' BUY Yes 50¢ $10 6d
Will Rabby launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL No 62¢ $24 6d
Will Shivon Zilis be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' BUY Yes 50¢ $20 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 6d
Will Rabby launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY No 62¢ $25 7d
Will Rabby launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL No 63¢ $73 7d
Will Rabby launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY No 64¢ $51 7d
Will Rabby launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY No 65¢ $39 7d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 7d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 38¢ $2 7d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 7d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 7d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 13d
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 20d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? BUY No 28¢ $112 21d
FDA approves Cingulate's Ctx-1301? BUY Yes 58¢ $446 23d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $435 24d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $180 24d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $264 24d
Will Enzo Maresca be the next manager of Manchester City FC? SELL Yes 99¢ $180 24d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? SELL No 53¢ $216 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $145.27 · official $148.27 · 769 history records