Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:02:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
8D 0x8da1…d39c other 39 markets active 0h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$289 (-24%) realized −$243 · open −$46
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%15W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$634now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$261
other 39% +$19
world 10% −$93
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-29.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 36 -21.7% -29.1% 42% 42% -58.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.1% 42% -58.7%
10% -35.9% 39% -62.6%
15% -42.1% 28% -66.3%
20% -47.8% 25% -69.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -54% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$17 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$634
Realized−$243
Unrealized−$46
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses15 / 21
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)36 / 39
History coverage162d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 60¢ 62¢ $330 $338 +$8 (+2%)
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 180.5 Under 73¢ 50¢ $250 $170 −$80 (-32%)
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks Los Angeles Sparks 26¢ 32¢ $100 $125 +$25 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Club Brugge KV end in a draw? Feb 28 $5 −$5 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? Feb 28 $10 −$10 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $10 $0 -5%
Will Kilmarnock FC vs. Celtic FC end in a draw? Feb 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-02-14? Feb 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-13? Feb 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-21? Feb 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano vs. Juventus FC end in a draw? Feb 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-02-17? Feb 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Wigan Athletic FC end in a draw? Feb 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-02-18? Feb 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-02-22? Feb 23 $5 −$5 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 21 $5 +$1 +23%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-17? Feb 18 $5 +$6 +127%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-02-15? Feb 15 $5 +$8 +156%
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-02-14? Feb 15 $5 +$1 +30%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-14? Feb 15 $5 +$2 +37%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-14? Feb 15 $5 +$3 +52%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-02-14? Feb 14 $5 +$2 +32%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-02-14? Feb 14 $5 +$7 +138%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-13? Feb 14 $10 +$3 +27%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-02-13? Feb 14 $10 +$6 +62%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-13? Feb 13 $5 +$3 +62%
Spread: Lakers (-6.5) Feb 13 $5 +$5 +104%
Spread: Trail Blazers (-8.5) Feb 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-02-12? Feb 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) Feb 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? Feb 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Kenneth Walker III win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Feb 12 $50 +$8 +16%
Seton Hall Pirates vs. Creighton Bluejays Feb 12 $148 −$148 -100%
Rockets vs. Pistons Jan 24 $5 −$5 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 23 $95 −$87 -92%
Series: LGD Gaming Inhibitor Handicap (-1.5) vs Oh My God (+1.5) Jan 23 $5 $0 -1%
Packers vs. Bears Jan 23 $32 −$32 -100%
Kansas State Wildcats vs. Arizona State Sun Devils Jan 11 $15 +$11 +73%
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Indiana Hoosiers Jan 10 $7 +$12 +178%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks BUY Los Angeles Sparks 26¢ $103 9m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $337 1h
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 180.5 BUY Under 73¢ $255 1h
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Club Brugge KV end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 113d
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $5 117d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Club Brugge KV end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 117d
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? SELL Yes 63¢ $10 118d
Will AC Milan win on 2026-02-22? BUY Yes 72¢ $5 119d
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $5 120d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $6 120d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 120d
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $5 122d
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-02-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 123d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $5 123d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 124d
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-02-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 124d
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 126d
Will Kilmarnock FC vs. Celtic FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 126d
Will Kilmarnock FC vs. Celtic FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 126d
Will Kilmarnock FC vs. Celtic FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 126d
Will Arsenal FC vs. Wigan Athletic FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 126d
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-02-15? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 126d
Will FC Internazionale Milano vs. Juventus FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 127d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-14? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 127d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-14? BUY Yes 73¢ $5 127d
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-02-14? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 127d
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-02-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 127d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-02-14? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 127d
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-02-14? BUY No 42¢ $5 127d
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $8 128d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $633.55 · official $633.55 (match) · 84 history records