Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:43:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
8D 0x8d9c…cf78 sports 168 markets active 1h ago coverage 226d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$921 (+6%) realized +$843 · open +$78
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%68W / 93L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$211est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$553now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$199
7 days+$452
14 days+$582
30 days+$1,067
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$1,042
other 18% +$147
world 0% +$1
crypto 0% +$12
economics 0% +$15
tech 0% −$5
politics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -0.7% -10.1% 31% 31% -2.4%
≤30d 111 -3.3% -12.6% 40% 40% -1.3%
≤90d 111 -3.3% -12.6% 40% 40% -1.3%
all 161 -6.0% -15.0% 42% 41% -2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 41% -2.3%
10% -23.1% 37% -11.7%
15% -30.5% 31% -20.2%
20% -37.4% 27% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$114 vs −$71 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

226d coverage
Net worth$553
Realized+$843
Unrealized+$78
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses68 / 93
Est. fees paid−$211
Open positions7
Markets (closed)161 / 168
History coverage226d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 161 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Taipei: Erika Sema vs Eunhye Lee Eunhye Lee 33¢ 66¢ $150 $299 +$149 (+99%)
ITF Sapporo: Eunchae Kim vs Sae Noguchi Eunchae Kim 18¢ 24¢ $100 $132 +$32 (+32%)
Will Germany reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 39¢ 40¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
ITF Monastir: Isabella De Micco Padula vs Elena Jamshidi Isabella De Micco Padula 18¢ 16¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-11%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 48¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027? Yes 15¢ 6¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-57%)
ITF Sapporo: Riyo Yoshida vs Seo Yun Choi Riyo Yoshida 21¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Tulsa: Alex Rybakov vs Bruno Kuzuhara Jun 17 $184 +$716 +388%
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 17 $174 −$174 -100%
ITF Irvine: Alina Shcherbinina vs Nanari Katsumi Jun 17 $47 −$47 -100%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $153 +$222 +146%
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw Jun 16 $205 −$205 -100%
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Lorenzo Giustino Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon Jun 16 $35 +$125 +358%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 16 $154 −$154 -100%
ITF Klosters: Sophie Luescher vs Ashley Lahey Jun 16 $103 +$731 +712%
ITF Tauste: Tiphanie Lemaitre vs Zoziya Kardava Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Yuliana Lizarazo Jun 15 $36 −$36 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Vera Zvonareva Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $376 −$376 -100%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $82 −$82 -100%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $225 −$225 -100%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 15 $128 −$128 -100%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
ITF Cuiaba: Antonia Rivera vs Carolina Alves Jun 15 $173 −$173 -100%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$41 +81%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $153 +$211 +138%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $102 +$150 +148%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $51 +$43 +85%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $89 −$89 -100%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $158 +$220 +140%
ITF Kayseri: Ilay Yoruk vs Lan Mi Jun 14 $111 +$269 +242%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $89 −$89 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$68 +134%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $36 +$159 +442%
ITF Decatur: Lea Ma vs Zuzanna Pawlikowska Jun 13 $86 −$86 -100%
ITF Los Angeles: Alina Shcherbinina vs Alexandra Vagramov Jun 13 $31 −$31 -100%
ITF Cuiaba: Noelia Zeballos vs Carolina Alves Jun 13 $123 −$123 -100%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Ilkley: Jacob Fearnley vs Filippo Romano Jun 13 $31 −$31 -100%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $102 −$102 -100%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur Jun 13 $50 +$13 +27%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 +$56 +109%
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Billy Harris Jun 12 $588 +$1,273 +216%
ITF Wuning: Mei Yamaguchi vs Junhan Zhang Jun 11 $376 −$376 -100%
ITF Wuning: Ya Yi Yang vs Anchisa Chanta Jun 11 $309 −$309 -100%
Tucuman: Juan Bautista Torres vs Carlos Maria Zarate Jun 11 $51 −$51 -100%
ITF Nice: Nika Hurkacz vs Denislava Glushkova Jun 11 $51 −$51 -100%
ITF Nice: Alevtina Ibragimova vs Berta Bonardi Jun 11 $62 −$62 -100%
Tucuman: Segundo Goity Zapico vs Federico Coria Jun 11 $31 −$31 -100%
ITF Cuiaba: Camila Markus vs Mell Elizabeth Reasco Gonzalez Jun 11 $51 −$51 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $305 −$305 -100%
Tucuman: Juan Estevez vs Matias Soto Jun 10 $51 +$70 +137%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Taipei: Erika Sema vs Eunhye Lee BUY Eunhye Lee 31¢ $51 40m
ITF Sapporo: Eunchae Kim vs Sae Noguchi BUY Eunchae Kim 18¢ $102 51m
ITF Sapporo: Riyo Yoshida vs Seo Yun Choi BUY Riyo Yoshida 21¢ $102 1h
ITF Monastir: Isabella De Micco Padula vs Elena Jamshidi BUY Isabella De Micco Padula 18¢ $9 1h
ITF Tulsa: Alex Rybakov vs Bruno Kuzuhara BUY Bruno Kuzuhara 20¢ $184 3h
ITF Irvine: Alina Shcherbinina vs Nanari Katsumi BUY Nanari Katsumi 6¢ $10 3h
ITF Irvine: Alina Shcherbinina vs Nanari Katsumi BUY Nanari Katsumi 6¢ $21 3h
ITF Irvine: Alina Shcherbinina vs Nanari Katsumi BUY Nanari Katsumi 6¢ $15 3h
ITF Irvine: Alina Shcherbinina vs Nanari Katsumi BUY Nanari Katsumi 16¢ $1 5h
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Samuel Heredia 14¢ $31 5h
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Samuel Heredia 29¢ $102 5h
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Samuel Heredia 21¢ $41 5h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 20¢ $102 8h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $153 8h
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw BUY Eliakim Coulibaly 13¢ $51 9h
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw BUY Eliakim Coulibaly 25¢ $153 9h
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon BUY Conor Gannon 18¢ $7 16h
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon BUY Conor Gannon 16¢ $9 16h
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon BUY Conor Gannon 21¢ $7 16h
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon BUY Conor Gannon 33¢ $12 16h
ITF Klosters: Sophie Luescher vs Ashley Lahey BUY Sophie Luescher 12¢ $103 19h
ITF Taipei: Erika Sema vs Eunhye Lee BUY Eunhye Lee 35¢ $102 19h
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Bruno Fernandez 12¢ $51 29h
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Bruno Fernandez 23¢ $1 29h
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Bruno Fernandez 47¢ $100 30h
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Lorenzo Giustino BUY Lorenzo Giustino 17¢ $101 30h
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Bruno Fernandez 14¢ $2 31h
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Yuliana Lizarazo BUY Yuliana Lizarazo 4¢ $36 32h
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Vera Zvonareva BUY Vera Zvonareva 4¢ $15 32h
ITF Tauste: Tiphanie Lemaitre vs Zoziya Kardava BUY Zoziya Kardava 14¢ $51 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $552.59 · official $552.59 (match) · 456 history records