Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:57:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8d9c…4d64 weather 91 markets active 10h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$144 (-13%) realized −$135 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate35%28W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day13.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days−$77
14 days−$170
30 days−$170
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$129
sports 28% +$21
weather 17% −$89
crypto 6% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-25.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +0.4% -9.2% 40% 35% -16.9%
≤30d 81 -17.8% -25.6% 35% 31% -24.2%
≤90d 81 -17.8% -25.6% 35% 31% -24.2%
all 81 -17.8% -25.6% 35% 31% -24.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.6% 31% -24.2%
10% -32.7% 26% -31.5%
15% -39.2% 23% -38.1%
20% -45.2% 19% -44.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -42% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$8 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized−$135
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses28 / 53
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions10
Markets (closed)81 / 91
History coverage11d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day13.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $31 $24 −$7 (-24%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $21 $20 −$1 (-3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15 $12 −$3 (-19%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+15%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+22%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $2 +$1 (+87%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$9 +86%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $40 +$19 +48%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $15 +$8 +55%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +45%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $36 −$21 -57%
Will Trump say "Fight" during UFC 250? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Trump say "Miami" during UFC 250? Jun 15 $98 −$3 -3%
Will Grahm Platner drop out before the Midterms? Jun 15 $3 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$37 +119%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 +$16 +153%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 +$12 +80%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $6 $0 -3%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 +$9 +182%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $11 −$4 -34%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 +$5 +52%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$1 -21%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$6 -59%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -75%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$40 +392%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $21 −$8 -39%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $2 +$15 +650%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 13 $8 −$4 -50%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $159 −$158 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$9 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +13%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $36 +$38 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 $0 +0%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $4 +$7 +167%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $15 +$5 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$3 +134%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 10h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $6 10h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $14 10h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 16h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 16h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 16h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $26 16h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 21h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $40 32h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 84¢ $15 43h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 44h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 44h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $15 45h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes $2 2d
Spain leading at halftime? SELL Yes $2 2d
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 42¢ $4 2d
Spain leading at halftime? SELL Yes 48¢ $3 2d
Spain leading at halftime? SELL Yes 52¢ $10 2d
Will Trump say "Fight" during UFC 250? BUY No 52¢ $10 2d
Will Trump say "Fight" during UFC 250? BUY No 53¢ $11 2d
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 75¢ $10 2d
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 2d
Will Trump say "Miami" during UFC 250? SELL No 95¢ $95 2d
Will Trump say "Miami" during UFC 250? BUY No 98¢ $98 2d
Will Grahm Platner drop out before the Midterms? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 2d
Will Grahm Platner drop out before the Midterms? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $31 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.11 · official $102.11 (match) · 176 history records