Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:39:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8D
0x8d9a…dbe1
crypto · 807 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$2,766 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,486 · open −$280
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Net worth$439
Realized−$2,486
Unrealized−$280
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses487 / 317
Est. fees paid−$77
Open positions3
Markets (closed)804 / 807
History coverage99d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day27.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 3 History 804 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$637
7 days+$931
14 days+$705
30 days−$165
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Team Falcons 36¢ 54¢ $291 $437 +$146 (+50%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Team Falcons 14¢ $403 $1 −$402 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Legacy $25 $0 −$25 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $201 −$7 -3%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $106 −$106 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $72 +$57 +79%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $117 −$117 -100%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5) Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 12 $47 +$90 +193%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $30 +$17 +57%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $339 +$312 +92%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $236 +$103 +43%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Kan Jun 11 $115 −$31 -27%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $51 −$51 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Jun 11 $24 −$24 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $51 +$38 +74%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5 Jun 11 $51 −$25 -50%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $76 −$13 -17%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 10 $21 −$21 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5 Jun 10 $51 +$25 +50%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 11.5 Jun 10 $51 +$40 +78%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $71 +$53 +74%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $25 +$21 +84%
LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5) Jun 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals Jun 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. S Jun 10 $23 +$15 +65%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5) Jun 10 $18 −$18 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5) Jun 10 $15 +$50 +327%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5 Jun 10 $88 +$60 +68%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5 Jun 10 $130 +$166 +127%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $91 +$53 +58%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $20 +$2 +12%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Jun 10 $10 +$12 +116%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $23 −$14 -62%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 18.5 Jun 09 $71 +$71 +100%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 Jun 09 $41 +$41 +102%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $66 +$87 +132%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 12.5 Jun 09 $167 +$130 +78%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 11.5 Jun 09 $120 −$7 -6%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5 Jun 09 $69 +$35 +52%
LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $48 +$4 +7%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 10.5 Jun 09 $25 −$14 -54%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 08 $25 +$14 +54%
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs NEW VISION - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $60 +$19 +31%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $12 +$11 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Deer Gaming vs The Ruddy Sack (BO5) - NLC Playoffs Jun 08 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 82% −$3,318
sports 16% +$588
other 2% −$67
world 0% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 36¢ $100 5m
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 35¢ $95 10m
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 36¢ $102 11m
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports - Game 2 Winner SELL G2 NORD 82¢ $194 20m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy $26 21m
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports - Game 2 Winner BUY G2 NORD 84¢ $201 29m
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons $21 38m
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 19¢ $51 40m
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 46¢ $101 42m
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 67¢ $101 43m
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 71¢ $29 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 73¢ $35 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 68¢ $35 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 75¢ $35 1h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 57¢ $198 5h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 45¢ $141 5h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner SELL Hanwha Life Esports 100¢ $339 5h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 69¢ $236 5h
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) BUY Hanwha Life Esports 32¢ $39 5h
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) BUY Hanwha Life Esports 44¢ $7 5h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports $21 6h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 85¢ $128 6h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 33¢ $51 6h
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 63¢ $30 9h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Kan SELL Yes 39¢ $37 20h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Kan SELL Yes 48¢ $47 20h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Kan BUY Yes 58¢ $115 20h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 37¢ $106 21h
Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5) BUY Miami Marlins $26 21h
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 BUY Under $51 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 88 +0.9% -8.7% 58% 47% +14.6%
≤30d 321 -11.7% -20.1% 64% 30% -11.6%
≤90d 694 -9.5% -18.1% 63% 34% -20.0%
all 804 -9.3% -18.0% 61% 35% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover27.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.0% 35% -17.6%
10% ← realistic here -25.8% 25% -25.5%
15% -33.0% 17% -32.7%
20% -39.5% 11% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $438.75 · official $438.75 (match) · 3440 history records