Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:33:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8d99…9675 sports 156 markets active 2h ago coverage 104d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,826 (-6%) realized −$2,544 · open −$2,282
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate52%80W / 75L
Whale WR51%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$539per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$2,559est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 104d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$9,389
crypto 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 -23.4% -30.7% 32% 24% -33.3%
≤30d 78 -12.8% -21.1% 44% 35% -26.9%
≤90d 150 -4.7% -13.7% 51% 43% -17.7%
all 155 -3.9% -13.0% 52% 43% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 43% -17.8%
10% -21.3% 34% -25.7%
15% -28.9% 24% -32.9%
20% -35.9% 20% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 51% (≥$610) neutral
Persistence
early +5% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$259 vs −$371 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$2,544
Unrealized−$2,282
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses80 / 75
Whale WR (big bets)51%
Est. fees paid−$2,559
Open positions1
Markets (closed)155 / 156
History coverage104d
Avg bet$539
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 155 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Chloe Paquet Chloe Paquet 25¢ 0¢ $2,286 $4 −$2,282 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Vera Zvonareva Jun 16 $917 +$1,988 +217%
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Jun 15 $1,019 +$316 +31%
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 15 $1,096 −$53 -5%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $1,058 +$39 +4%
Tucuman: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Jun 14 $859 −$841 -98%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng Jun 14 $855 +$279 +33%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $725 −$710 -98%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Tom Gentzsch Jun 14 $1,172 −$774 -66%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 14 $3,521 −$2,370 -67%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $2,662 +$1,036 +39%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 14 $4,155 −$1,517 -36%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 13 $498 +$1,827 +367%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $1,097 −$1,097 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 13 $398 −$387 -97%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Jun 13 $897 −$878 -98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $1,097 −$1,069 -97%
Ilkley: Celine Naef vs Akasha Urhobo Jun 12 $488 −$476 -98%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery Jun 12 $408 −$400 -98%
Ilkley: Lulu Sun vs Mary Stoiana Jun 12 $479 −$468 -98%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $512 −$318 -62%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra Jun 12 $563 −$551 -98%
ITF Tokyo: Eri Shimizu vs Mayuka Aikawa Jun 12 $507 +$51 +10%
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez Jun 11 $58 +$453 +788%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Julia Grabher Jun 11 $1,401 −$900 -64%
Ilkley: Tatiana Prozorova vs Sinja Kraus Jun 11 $509 −$64 -13%
Lyon: Thomas Faurel vs Clement Tabur Jun 11 $508 +$52 +10%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $510 +$11 +2%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 11 $525 +$76 +15%
Modena: Tamara Zidansek vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 11 $903 +$1,411 +156%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $2,216 −$726 -33%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Jun 10 $610 +$20 +3%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 10 $814 +$370 +46%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 10 $613 +$462 +75%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 10 $599 +$564 +94%
Libema Open: Lois Boisson vs Solana Sierra Jun 10 $501 −$501 -100%
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Linda Fruhvirtova Jun 10 $1,119 −$340 -30%
HSBC Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Alexandra Eala Jun 10 $339 −$331 -98%
Tucuman: Juan Estevez vs Matias Soto Jun 10 $1,154 −$514 -44%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 10 $757 −$757 -100%
T20 Blast: Durham vs Lancashire Jun 09 $346 +$166 +48%
T20 Blast: Northamptonshire vs Worcestershire Jun 09 $598 −$251 -42%
T20 Blast: Middlesex vs Essex Jun 09 $282 −$79 -28%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Storm Hunter Jun 09 $203 −$203 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Caty McNally vs Daria Kasatkina Jun 09 $153 −$153 -100%
T20 Blast: Nottinghamshire vs Derbyshire Jun 09 $215 −$215 -100%
HSBC Championships: Karolina Pliskova vs McCartney Kessler Jun 09 $512 −$251 -49%
Ilkley: Linda Klimovicova vs Sinja Kraus Jun 09 $204 −$204 -100%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Paula Badosa Jun 09 $204 −$204 -100%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Chennai Super Kings Jun 09 $135 −$135 -100%
Cattolica: Liam Broady vs Ioannis Xilas Jun 09 $306 −$306 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Chloe Paquet BUY Chloe Paquet 20¢ $493 1h
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Chloe Paquet BUY Chloe Paquet 22¢ $409 1h
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Chloe Paquet BUY Chloe Paquet 22¢ $102 1h
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Chloe Paquet BUY Chloe Paquet 30¢ $5 1h
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Chloe Paquet BUY Chloe Paquet 31¢ $306 1h
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Chloe Paquet BUY Chloe Paquet 30¢ $1,021 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Vera Zvonareva SELL Susan Bandecchi 61¢ $1,092 16h
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Vera Zvonareva BUY Susan Bandecchi 23¢ $307 17h
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Vera Zvonareva BUY Susan Bandecchi 23¢ $102 17h
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Vera Zvonareva BUY Susan Bandecchi 27¢ $397 17h
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Vera Zvonareva BUY Susan Bandecchi 27¢ $8 17h
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Vera Zvonareva BUY Susan Bandecchi 26¢ $102 17h
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston SELL Taylah Preston 50¢ $1,335 17h
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston BUY Taylah Preston 37¢ $1,019 17h
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio SELL Ekaterine Gorgodze 22¢ $560 17h
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio SELL Ekaterine Gorgodze 19¢ $483 17h
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio BUY Ekaterine Gorgodze 11¢ $118 18h
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio BUY Ekaterine Gorgodze 15¢ $461 18h
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio BUY Ekaterine Gorgodze 21¢ $1 18h
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio BUY Ekaterine Gorgodze 21¢ $1 18h
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio BUY Ekaterine Gorgodze 21¢ $1 18h
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio BUY Ekaterine Gorgodze 21¢ $1 18h
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio BUY Ekaterine Gorgodze 21¢ $1 18h
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio BUY Ekaterine Gorgodze 21¢ $1 18h
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio BUY Ekaterine Gorgodze 21¢ $3 18h
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio BUY Ekaterine Gorgodze 45¢ $508 18h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones SELL Francesca Jones 43¢ $1,097 19h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones BUY Francesca Jones 41¢ $40 19h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones BUY Francesca Jones 40¢ $1,018 19h
Tucuman: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez BUY Johan Alexander Rodriguez 24¢ $4 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.50 · official $4.50 (match) · 785 history records