Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:43:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
8D 0x8d98…e447 sports 61 markets active 2h ago coverage 232d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$8,157 (+8%) realized +$8,050 · open +$107
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate54%27W / 23L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$1,677per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$594est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$877now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 232d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$8,516
other 36% +$20,255
crypto 1% $0
world 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +49.9% +35.6% 65% 65% +51.3%
≤30d 30 +39.7% +26.4% 57% 57% +40.0%
≤90d 33 +40.3% +26.9% 58% 58% +39.9%
all 50 +24.7% +12.8% 54% 52% +19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.8% 52% +19.9%
10% +2.0% 52% +8.5%
15% -7.8% 48% -2.0%
20% -16.9% 44% -11.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +55% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$2,527) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late +42% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,644 vs −$683 · ×2.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.82 per $1 lost it wins $2.82
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$877
Realized+$8,050
Unrealized+$107
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses27 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$594
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 61
History coverage232d
Avg bet$1,677
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 19¢ $770 $877 +$107 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $909 −$419 -46%
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 1.5 AND Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 23 $509 +$732 +144%
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Argen Jun 23 $2,041 +$4,288 +210%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $3,547 +$1,615 +46%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $4,545 +$1,060 +23%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $1,023 −$849 -83%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $2,206 −$1,181 -54%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $2,033 +$2,492 +122%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1,016 +$1,084 +107%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $4,955 +$2,947 +60%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $10 +$7 +66%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $1,017 +$1,364 +134%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $767 +$2,118 +276%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $206 −$200 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $253 −$253 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,453 +$1,669 +115%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2,541 +$2,990 +118%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $1,097 −$1,097 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $1,056 −$683 -65%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $2,527 +$1,379 +55%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $509 −$236 -46%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2,034 +$2,512 +124%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $4,071 +$5,788 +142%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4,294 −$212 -5%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $616 −$616 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $550 −$550 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $510 +$879 +172%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 14 $1,162 −$78 -7%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1,445 +$2,638 +182%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 10 $1,605 −$1,583 -99%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $584 +$751 +129%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $597 −$469 -78%
Spread: Suns (-2.5) Apr 18 $906 +$809 +89%
Spread: Celtics (-17.5) Feb 28 $718 −$718 -100%
UFC 323: Pantoja vs. Van (Flyweight, Main Card) Dec 06 $3,568 −$3,568 -100%
76ers vs. Bucks Dec 06 $750 +$665 +89%
Bulls vs. Trail Blazers Dec 06 $1,500 +$529 +35%
Bills vs. Texans Nov 21 $1,500 −$797 -53%
Warriors vs. Heat: O/U 233.5 Nov 20 $886 +$887 +100%
Suns vs. Trail Blazers Nov 19 $1,000 +$693 +69%
Cowboys vs. Raiders Nov 19 $1,000 +$569 +57%
Jazz vs. Lakers Nov 19 $313 −$313 -100%
Ravens vs. Browns Nov 18 $5,277 +$197 +4%
Packers vs. Giants Nov 16 $3,197 −$138 -4%
UFC 322: Dariush vs. Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card) Nov 16 $4,075 +$2,203 +54%
UFC 322: Brady vs. Morales (Welterweight, Main Card) Nov 16 $2,000 −$34 -2%
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025? Nov 16 $4,217 −$108 -3%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 10 $4,153 +$1,518 +37%
Mavericks vs. Wizards Nov 08 $1,400 −$1,400 -100%
Cardinals vs. Cowboys Nov 04 $660 −$206 -31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 35¢ $486 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 36¢ $4 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $909 2h
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 5.5 Corners AND England vs. Ghana: Engl BUY 46¢ $508 3h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY 56¢ $2,533 4h
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY 42¢ $2,289 4h
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 1.5 AND Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY 40¢ $509 22h
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 43¢ $845 24h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 54¢ $1,014 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,422 27h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 56¢ $2,533 27h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over $174 27h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $1,023 29h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 32¢ $1,024 29h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 67¢ $2,206 29h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 67¢ $2,183 33h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $4,545 40h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $4,955 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY 48¢ $1,016 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY 45¢ $1,199 2d
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Argen BUY 32¢ $2,041 2d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 42¢ $1,017 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY 44¢ $2,033 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $206 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 26¢ $256 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 26¢ $511 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND BUY $840 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 22¢ $1,023 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $253 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $876.75 · official $876.75 (match) · 175 history records