Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:37:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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8D 0x8d97…b152 crypto 978 markets active 9h ago coverage 106d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 106d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$176 (-1%) realized −$175 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate77%755W / 221L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day28.3pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days−$927
14 days−$1,106
30 days−$936
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% −$636
sports 17% −$62
other 3% −$36
finance 1% −$6
tech 0% −$18
world 0% +$4
politics 0% −$6
culture 0% −$4
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 171 -4.3% -13.4% 78% 33% -19.4%
≤30d 336 -5.7% -14.7% 74% 37% -16.1%
≤90d 823 -2.3% -11.6% 77% 40% -12.9%
all 976 -1.5% -10.9% 77% 41% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.9% 41% -12.1%
10% ← realistic here -19.4% 23% -20.5%
15% -27.2% 13% -28.2%
20% -34.3% 8% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$15 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$175
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses755 / 221
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)976 / 978
History coverage106d ⚠
Avg bet$27
Trades / day28.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 976 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 85¢ 82¢ $17 $16 −$0 (-3%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 52¢ 42¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $46 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $36 +$7 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $18 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$4 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $109 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $98 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $47 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $19 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $85 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $49 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $29 +$1 +3%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $6 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $98 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$5 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$16 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $28 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $68 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $127 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $181 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$9 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$3 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$4 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $65 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $37 +$6 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +17%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $48 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $28 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $19 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $9 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $39 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $15 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $15 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $4 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $6 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $9 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $19 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $9 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $9 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $6 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $21 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $11 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $17 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $25 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $96 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $14 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.75 · official $20.75 (match) · 3500 history records