Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:11:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8d96…e61b crypto 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (72 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$13 (-1%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate61%20W / 13L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day72.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% +$248
sports 8% +$7
other 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (72 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +18.4% +7.1% 61% 55% +19.0%
≤30d 33 +18.4% +7.1% 61% 55% +19.0%
≤90d 33 +18.4% +7.1% 61% 55% +19.0%
all 33 +18.4% +7.1% 61% 55% +19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover72.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +7.1% 55% +19.0%
10% ← realistic here -3.2% 55% +7.6%
15% -12.5% 52% -2.8%
20% -21.1% 48% -12.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +41% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$20 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.01 per $1 lost it wins $2.01
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses20 / 13
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage1d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day72.0
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? No 51¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 20 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 20 $104 +$113 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 20 $130 −$25 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 20 $79 +$38 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 20 $104 +$166 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$41 +157%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$5 +104%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -95%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$6 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$28 +108%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$24 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 19 $31 +$9 +28%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $10 −$1 -11%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$1 -5%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$9 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$11 +102%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$5 +91%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$6 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$5 +53%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $27 +$19 +68%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 4 Winner Jun 19 $10 $0 -5%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $3 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff Jun 19 $13 −$10 -73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $218 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $190 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $117 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $79 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $67 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $11 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $26 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $54 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $11 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $29 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $22 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.90 · official $9.90 (match) · 85 history records