Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:52:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8d96…ffd7 world 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 535d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$31 (-1%) realized −$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate41%15W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$1
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$7
other 38% −$17
politics 12% +$1
sports 5% −$6
economics 1% $0
finance 0% $0
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1.1% -8.5% 100% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 21 +5.5% -4.6% 38% 10% -8.5%
≤90d 29 +3.5% -6.4% 34% 7% -10.0%
all 37 +9.9% -0.5% 41% 16% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.5% 16% -10.2%
10% -10.0% 14% -18.8%
15% -18.7% 14% -26.7%
20% -26.7% 14% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

535d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses15 / 22
Open positions2
Markets (closed)37 / 39
History coverage535d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 64¢ 64¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $3 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 11 $7 $0 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 10 $86 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $7 −$1 -8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $43 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $97 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $65 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $29 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $3 $0 +3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $21 +$1 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $44 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 30 $27 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $12 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 27 $25 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 26 $43 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $46 +$1 +2%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 24 $19 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $3 +$3 +105%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 21 $36 +$4 +11%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 21 $39 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $129 −$1 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in April 2026? Apr 26 $101 +$2 +2%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Apr 24 $119 −$18 -15%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 20 $230 +$2 +1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $15 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 19 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 18 $244 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 17 $244 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 +3%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 0-5%? May 20 $72 $0 -0%
Maine vs. Albany Mar 03 $69 −$69 -100%
Coppin State vs. SC State Feb 17 $39 +$34 +86%
Virginia vs. Virginia Tech Feb 16 $20 +$20 +100%
Jacksonville vs. Central Arkansas Feb 14 $4 +$5 +122%
Maryland vs. Nebraska Feb 14 $4 +$5 +127%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in December? Dec 31 $1 −$1 -71%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $36 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $46 3h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 18h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 20h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 26h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 26h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 28h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 61¢ $1 7d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $10 8d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $32 8d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 61¢ $27 8d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 61¢ $15 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 67¢ $5 9d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 67¢ $7 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $18 10d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $25 10d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $43 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $48 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $48 14d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $45 14d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $45 14d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $14 15d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $6 15d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $4 15d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $16 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $6 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.53 · official $9.53 (match) · 147 history records