Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:07:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8d93…b34d sports 892 markets active 0h ago coverage 55d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (58 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$28,177 (-9%) realized −$28,173 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate55%489W / 402L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$355per market
Trades / day57.5pace
Fees−$2,742est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$496now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$453
7 days−$1,756
14 days−$3,194
30 days−$12,568
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$27,354
other 24% −$1,381
crypto 2% −$1,220
world 0% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (58 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -10.9% -19.4% 53% 53% -19.1%
≤30d 360 -5.4% -14.4% 55% 53% -19.2%
≤90d 891 -6.8% -15.7% 55% 52% -18.2%
all 891 -6.8% -15.7% 55% 52% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.7% 52% -18.2%
10% ← realistic here -23.8% 48% -26.0%
15% -31.1% 41% -33.1%
20% -37.9% 30% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$198 vs −$315 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$496
Realized−$28,173
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses489 / 402
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$2,742
Open positions1
Markets (closed)891 / 892
History coverage55d
Avg bet$355
Trades / day57.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 891 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $500 $496 −$4 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 376 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $303 +$119 +40%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $304 +$188 +62%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $204 −$200 -98%
Fortaleza EC vs. América FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $150 +$50 +33%
Fortaleza EC vs. América FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $120 −$120 -100%
Fortaleza EC vs. América FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $80 −$80 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $240 +$60 +25%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $112 −$2 -2%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $506 +$301 +60%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $54 +$54 +101%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $786 −$778 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $140 −$140 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $660 −$660 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $257 −$255 -99%
Dota 2: WinteR SquadronS vs Ivory - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $127 −$127 -100%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $162 −$162 -100%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $69 +$196 +284%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $828 +$1,109 +134%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $204 −$200 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $303 −$300 -99%
Will São Bernardo FC win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $152 −$152 -100%
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin Jun 14 $120 −$120 -100%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $53 +$28 +53%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $541 +$485 +90%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $184 −$182 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $505 +$230 +46%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $329 +$212 +64%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $421 −$416 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $303 +$118 +39%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $360 −$360 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $818 +$488 +60%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $319 −$314 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $671 −$667 -99%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $540 +$131 +24%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $352 +$69 +20%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 158.5 Jun 13 $300 −$300 -100%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 156.5 Jun 13 $42 −$42 -99%
Audax CS Italiano vs. CD La Serena: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $45 +$55 +122%
Audax CS Italiano vs. CD La Serena: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $56 +$44 +78%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 168.5 Jun 13 $80 +$110 +138%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $122 −$120 -99%
Will CD La Serena win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $72 −$72 -100%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 12 $150 −$150 -100%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group Jun 12 $299 +$64 +21%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $139 +$25 +18%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $87 +$137 +157%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $127 +$55 +43%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings Jun 12 $495 +$164 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $504 19m
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $422 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $491 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $304 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $204 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $303 2h
Fortaleza EC vs. América FC: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $200 2h
Fortaleza EC vs. América FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 60¢ $96 3h
Fortaleza EC vs. América FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 60¢ $8 3h
Fortaleza EC vs. América FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 60¢ $17 3h
Fortaleza EC vs. América FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $147 3h
Fortaleza EC vs. América FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 40¢ $80 3h
Fortaleza EC vs. América FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $3 3h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $300 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 45¢ $111 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 80¢ $9 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 80¢ $231 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 45¢ $105 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 45¢ $8 4h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $54 15h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $506 15h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 26h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $786 34h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $140 35h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 66¢ $447 35h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 66¢ $213 35h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 71¢ $257 35h
Dota 2: WinteR SquadronS vs Ivory - Game 1 Winner BUY Ivory 55¢ $5 40h
Dota 2: WinteR SquadronS vs Ivory - Game 1 Winner BUY Ivory 55¢ $122 40h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports Challenger 65¢ $162 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $496.48 · official $489.44 · 3251 history records