Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:20:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

8D 0x8d90…c448 other 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$126 (-15%) realized −$110 · open −$29

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip

Net edge-23%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%5W / 10L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$49per market

Trades / day17.8pace

Fees−$6est.

Kalshi-fit41%portable

Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-16.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	15	-7.4%	-16.2%	33%	33%	-23.1%
≤30d	15	-7.4%	-16.2%	33%	33%	-23.1%
≤90d	15	-7.4%	-16.2%	33%	33%	-23.1%
all	15	-7.4%	-16.2%	33%	33%	-23.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover17.8 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-16.2%	33%	-23.1%
10%	-24.3%	33%	-30.5%
15%	-31.6%	33%	-37.2%
20%	-38.3%	33%	-43.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 43% · top 2 66% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -7% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -2% → late -12% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$50 vs −$36 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.69 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$54

Realized−$110

Unrealized−$29

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses5 / 10

Est. fees paid−$6

Open positions2

Markets (closed)15 / 17

History coverage2d

Avg bet$49

Trades / day17.8

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 15 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	3¢	3¢	$33	$34	+$1 (+2%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	21¢	8¢	$50	$20	−$30 (-60%)
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw?	Yes	18¢	0¢	$44	$0	−$44 (-100%)
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Yes	3¢	0¢	$7	$0	−$7 (-100%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Yes	14¢	0¢	$15	$0	−$15 (-100%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?	Yes	6¢	0¢	$85	$0	−$85 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$15	+$34	+221%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	Jun 14	$26	+$47	+184%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$56	−$46	-81%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Jun 14	$7	−$7	-97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$17	−$11	-61%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw?	Jun 14	$45	−$44	-98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$115	−$70	-61%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$15	−$15	-98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?	Jun 13	$70	+$59	+83%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$147	−$75	-51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Jun 13	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Jun 13	$5	+$3	+60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Jun 13	$26	−$3	-10%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$87	−$85	-97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$102	+$107	+105%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	21¢	$51	1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	3¢	$34	1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	92¢	$49	1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	28¢	$15	4h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	SELL Yes	80¢	$42	4h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	19¢	$10	4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	4¢	$8	4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	20¢	$41	5h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	SELL Yes	44¢	$31	5h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	21¢	$15	5h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	5¢	$3	5h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	27¢	$15	6h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	3¢	$7	8h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	1¢	$5	8h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	1¢	$2	8h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw?	BUY Yes	18¢	$45	24h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	7¢	$45	24h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	17¢	$115	26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	14¢	$15	26h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?	SELL Yes	55¢	$129	26h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?	BUY Yes	29¢	$70	27h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	30¢	$72	27h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	59¢	$147	34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	BUY Up	61¢	$5	46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	BUY Up	27¢	$5	46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	SELL Up	20¢	$1	46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	BUY Up	87¢	$5	46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	SELL Up	69¢	$22	46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	BUY Up	67¢	$5	46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	BUY Up	64¢	$5	46h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.85 · official $53.85 (match) · 38 history records