Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:53:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8d8b…ce95 sports 50 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$41 (-22%) realized −$41 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate36%16W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day21.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 39% −$3
other 29% −$25
finance 10% −$13
crypto 9% $0
world 7% −$3
politics 6% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -13.2% -21.5% 36% 27% -32.8%
≤30d 45 -13.2% -21.5% 36% 27% -32.8%
≤90d 45 -13.2% -21.5% 36% 27% -32.8%
all 45 -13.2% -21.5% 36% 27% -32.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.5% 27% -32.8%
10% ← realistic here -29.0% 16% -39.2%
15% -35.8% 13% -45.1%
20% -42.1% 11% -50.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$41
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses16 / 29
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)45 / 50
History coverage6d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day21.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? No 84¢ 81¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Will no listed leader be out before 2027? No 98¢ 97¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? No 97¢ 97¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Corentin Moutet 52¢ 52¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $2 $0 -2%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 16 $2 $0 -20%
US x China Military clash before 2027? Jun 16 $4 $0 -3%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 $0 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 16 $2 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 16 $2 $0 -1%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Jun 16 $2 $0 -1%
Will the National Regeneration Movement (Morena) win the most seats in Jun 16 $2 $0 -1%
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? Jun 16 $2 $0 -4%
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $2 $0 +20%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 +$1 +31%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -6%
Trump removed via 25th Amendment before 2027? Jun 14 $2 $0 -4%
Will Solana reach $75 on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 -6%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 +$2 +117%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $4 −$3 -76%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +7%
Zohran Mamdani out as mayor of NYC before 2027? Jun 14 $2 $0 -4%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -86%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $4 +$2 +58%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 14 $2 $0 -3%
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) Jun 14 $4 +$1 +20%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) Jun 11 $2 $0 +2%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $2 $0 +9%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $6 +$1 +14%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $6 −$2 -36%
Cattolica: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Marco Cecchinato Jun 11 $2 $0 +15%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Hynek Barton Jun 11 $2 +$2 +81%
ITF Wuning: Mei Yamaguchi vs Junhan Zhang Jun 11 $4 +$2 +40%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $2 +$5 +260%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $16 −$11 -69%
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 10 $2 $0 +6%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $4 +$3 +69%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $29 −$10 -36%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $2 $0 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $2 3m
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL No 48¢ $2 3m
US x China Military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $4 5m
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? SELL No 90¢ $2 19m
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 52¢ $2 21m
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $2 22m
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL No 97¢ $1 27m
Iran coup attempt by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $0 28m
Will the National Regeneration Movement (Morena) win the most seats in SELL Yes 75¢ $2 28m
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? BUY No 85¢ $2 28m
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet SELL Corentin Moutet 51¢ $2 28m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $0 1h
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $2 1h
Iran coup attempt by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $2 12h
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano BUY Franco Agamenone 65¢ $2 13h
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano BUY Franco Agamenone 65¢ $2 13h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 40¢ $2 13h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $0 13h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $0 16h
Iran coup attempt by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $2 24h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 75¢ $2 24h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 82¢ $2 24h
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 26h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL No 90¢ $1 28h
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $2 29h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL No 91¢ $7 29h
US x China Military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $2 31h
Trump removed via 25th Amendment before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $2 31h
Will Solana reach $75 on June 14? SELL No 96¢ $2 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.66 · official $11.66 (match) · 156 history records