Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:52:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8D 0x8d8a…e03f sports 284 markets active 1h ago coverage 180d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,739 (-5%) realized −$1,739 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate63%178W / 106L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$106est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$248
7 days+$293
14 days+$238
30 days+$311
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$188
other 44% −$968
politics 1% −$450
crypto 0% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +30.3% +17.9% 64% 64% +12.0%
≤30d 21 +13.5% +2.7% 57% 57% +2.6%
≤90d 157 +2.9% -6.9% 66% 64% -4.7%
all 284 -0.8% -10.3% 63% 60% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 60% -14.1%
10% -18.9% 48% -22.3%
15% -26.7% 32% -29.9%
20% -33.9% 23% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$90 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

180d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,739
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses178 / 106
Est. fees paid−$106
Open positions0
Markets (closed)284 / 284
History coverage180d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 284 Trades
no open positions (76 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 18 $20 +$7 +36%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $300 +$139 +46%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $199 +$151 +76%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 15 $37 −$36 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? AND Jun 15 $10 +$27 +260%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $158 +$85 +54%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $67 +$91 +136%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $178 −$175 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $81 −$33 -41%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $133 +$88 +66%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $20 −$20 -99%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $199 +$110 +55%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $222 −$220 -99%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 07 $133 +$89 +67%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $15 −$15 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros May 31 $145 +$93 +64%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 30 $101 −$100 -99%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $134 +$112 +84%
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves May 23 $94 −$93 -99%
Will Middlesbrough achieve promotion from the EFL Championship to the May 23 $34 +$61 +180%
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets May 16 $265 −$261 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies May 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Manchester City win the 2025-2026 FA Cup? May 16 $73 +$29 +39%
Spread: Celtic FC (-1.5) May 16 $132 −$131 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev May 15 $28 −$28 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves May 14 $34 −$34 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 14 $20 +$14 +71%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) May 14 $91 +$55 +60%
Will Motherwell FC win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $135 +$83 +62%
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles May 11 $131 −$129 -99%
Athletics vs. Baltimore Orioles May 10 $214 −$211 -99%
Will Rangers FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $135 +$79 +58%
Chicago Cubs vs. Texas Rangers May 09 $135 −$134 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Cincinnati Reds May 09 $54 −$53 -98%
Will Motherwell FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $41 +$13 +33%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Ben Shelton May 09 $28 −$28 -99%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Gujarat Titans May 09 $84 +$45 +54%
Will Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? May 09 $54 +$30 +55%
Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-1.5) May 09 $55 −$55 -99%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $43 +$12 +27%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $31 +$12 +38%
Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $32 −$1 -3%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres May 08 $25 −$25 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox May 08 $135 +$94 +70%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $67 −$67 -99%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) May 07 $46 +$21 +46%
Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees May 06 $46 −$45 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $30 +$15 +50%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Houston Astros May 06 $204 +$53 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs SELL Chicago Cubs 91¢ $27 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 66¢ $20 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 92¢ $439 2h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 62¢ $300 2h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 54¢ $51 7h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds SELL New York Mets 93¢ $351 7h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 52¢ $199 9h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 60¢ $37 2d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL New York Yankees 92¢ $243 3d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 59¢ $158 3d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Miami Marlins 94¢ $158 3d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 39¢ $67 3d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 52¢ $178 4d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets SELL Atlanta Braves 27¢ $48 5d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 44¢ $81 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? AND BUY 27¢ $10 6d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 96¢ $221 6d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 57¢ $133 6d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 65¢ $20 7d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays SELL Tampa Bay Rays 93¢ $310 7d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 59¢ $199 7d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 71¢ $222 10d
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 98¢ $222 10d
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 58¢ $133 10d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY No 45¢ $15 10d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros SELL Milwaukee Brewers 100¢ $238 17d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros BUY Milwaukee Brewers 60¢ $145 17d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 60¢ $101 18d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 99¢ $246 18d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 53¢ $134 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 516 history records