Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:48:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8d86…966f sports 129 markets active 2h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$23 (+4%) realized +$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate48%61W / 66L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day12.8pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$109
14 days+$23
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$44
crypto 10% −$20
other 9% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-22.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 -33.4% -39.8% 38% 36% -35.5%
≤30d 127 -14.5% -22.7% 48% 45% -8.4%
≤90d 127 -14.5% -22.7% 48% 45% -8.4%
all 127 -14.5% -22.7% 48% 45% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.7% 45% -8.4%
10% -30.1% 43% -17.2%
15% -36.8% 38% -25.2%
20% -43.0% 30% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -43% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses61 / 66
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)127 / 129
History coverage19d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day12.8
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Aurora Gaming 56¢ 55¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs 9z 27¢ 26¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 18 $2 +$3 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$1 -48%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +40%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $7 −$5 -70%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $7 −$6 -82%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $12 +$3 +24%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $4 +$1 +28%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +308%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 14 $10 −$6 -60%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 +$3 +62%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 +$7 +137%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -64%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +22%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -72%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$9 -87%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 +$13 +129%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $5 +$3 +55%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$3 +51%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5 +$3 +66%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 27¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 3h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 47h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $3 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 53¢ $3 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 36¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL FUT Esports 9¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 34¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 28¢ $3 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 18¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 71¢ $6 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 57¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 38¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.81 · official $7.81 (match) · 357 history records