Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:53:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
8D 0x8d86…4c5b sports 241 markets active 2d ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$62 (+2%) realized +$55 · open +$7
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate56%132W / 104L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$67
7 days+$171
14 days+$121
30 days+$143
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$13
crypto 6% −$5
other 4% +$39
world 3% +$13
tech 1% −$8
economics 1% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +23.6% +11.8% 77% 60% +15.6%
≤30d 85 +7.8% -2.5% 65% 51% +1.0%
≤90d 211 +0.0% -9.5% 57% 46% -5.8%
all 236 -2.7% -12.0% 56% 45% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 45% -8.5%
10% -20.4% 44% -17.2%
15% -28.1% 43% -25.2%
20% -35.1% 38% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$13 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized+$55
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses132 / 104
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions5
Markets (closed)236 / 241
History coverage122d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 236 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 84¢ 100¢ $28 $33 +$5 (+19%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 58¢ 62¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 91¢ 96¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 60¢ 74¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+24%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes $6 $5 −$1 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 100 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $6 $0 +4%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$11 +38%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $10 +$7 +70%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$9 +44%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $10 +$7 +67%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $10 +$9 +93%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $10 +$7 +67%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $10 +$11 +105%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $10 +$9 +86%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $10 +$8 +79%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$6 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +48%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $31 +$53 +172%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$21 +105%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $7 +$5 +73%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $20 +$13 +65%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Jun 12 $7 +$7 +97%
Heilbronn: Luka Mikrut vs Marvin Moeller Jun 12 $10 +$5 +46%
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Mika Stojsavljevic Jun 12 $10 +$5 +50%
Makarska: Noma Noha Akugue vs Sara Sorribes Tormo Jun 12 $10 +$6 +62%
Tyler: Andre Ilagan vs Yuta Shimizu Jun 12 $10 +$8 +76%
T20 Blast: Worcestershire vs Glamorgan Jun 12 $10 +$8 +83%
Prostejov: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Lautaro Midon Jun 12 $10 +$8 +83%
T20 Blast: Nottinghamshire vs Warwickshire Jun 12 $20 +$14 +69%
Panathinaikos vs. Olympiacos B.C. Jun 12 $20 +$15 +73%
T20 Blast: Yorkshire vs Lancashire Jun 12 $20 +$17 +83%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 12 $10 −$3 -27%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 05 $10 −$10 -99%
Anadolu Efes vs. Fenerbahce Jun 05 $20 −$20 -99%
Perugia: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Jun 05 $20 −$20 -99%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 28? Jun 02 $10 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 28? Jun 02 $11 +$1 +10%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 02 $10 +$10 +101%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 02 $10 +$12 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 88¢ $5 37h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 37h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 58¢ $10 37h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 55¢ $10 37h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 52¢ $10 37h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 58¢ $10 37h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 59¢ $10 37h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 63¢ $10 37h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 51¢ $10 37h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 59¢ $10 37h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 48¢ $10 37h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 53¢ $10 37h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 55¢ $10 37h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $30 37h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 37h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $30 37h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 37h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 57¢ $7 5d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 58¢ $10 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 12? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 92¢ $10 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 5d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 60¢ $10 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 52¢ $20 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 60¢ $20 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.36 · official $76.36 (match) · 423 history records