Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:36:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
8D 0x8d85…c436 sports 252 markets active 0h ago coverage 89d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 89d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$12,863 (-3%) realized −$12,213 · open −$650
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate30%101W / 235L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,756per market
Trades / day34.8pace
Fees−$7,525est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 89d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$62,487
crypto 1% +$1,967
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)+20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 99 -12.1% -20.5% 11% 10% -51.7%
≤30d 149 +25.7% +13.8% 21% 17% -25.6%
≤90d 336 +33.6% +20.8% 30% 26% -24.2%
all 336 +33.6% +20.8% 30% 26% -24.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +20.8% 26% -24.2%
10% +9.3% 21% -31.5%
15% ← realistic here -1.3% 17% -38.1%
20% -11.0% 13% -44.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$1,360) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +48% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
9.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$579 vs −$503 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$12,213
Unrealized−$650
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses101 / 235
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$7,525
Open positions2
Markets (closed)336 / 252
History coverage89d ⚠
Avg bet$1,756
Trades / day34.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 336 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner Team Bald 11¢ 0¢ $653 $3 −$650 (-100%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Kazakhstan before 2027? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 148 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mavericks vs. Raptors: O/U 229.5 Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $0 $0 -250%
Knicks vs. Nuggets Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Wild vs. Avalanche: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs GamerLegion (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group A Jun 21 $3 −$3 -94%
Nets vs. Heat: O/U 225.5 Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Valorant: Misa Esports vs Eintracht Frankfurt - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Georgia Bulldogs vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs G2 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Jun 21 $3 −$7 -251%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs PARIVISION - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $6 −$3 -56%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Valorant: Eintracht Frankfurt vs Team Liquid Academy (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs BIG Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Wild vs. Avalanche: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: UNO MILLE vs Guara Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Oxuji Esports vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - CCT Europe Close Jun 21 $0 −$5 -9910%
Dota 2: 1win vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition - Game 3 Winne Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-03-08? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs MASONIC (BO3) - Parken Challenger Champio Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Isurus vs FURIA fe (BO3) - CCT South America Series #9 Jun 21 $0 $0 +50%
Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Team Shpilit - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $2 +$10 +665%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 3DMAX (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Jun 21 $0 $0 -500%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $2 −$7 -386%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO3) - ESL Pro League Sta Jun 21 $3 −$13 -426%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $4 −$5 -122%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs illwill (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $0 −$1 -3987%
Valorant: DNSTY vs Barça eSports - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Pistons vs. Heat: O/U 231.5 Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
UFC 326: Cody Garbrandt vs. Xiao Long (Bantamweight, Prelims) Jun 21 $0 $0 -568%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs PARIVISION (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group Jun 21 $2 −$12 -654%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs 3DMAX - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 21 $0 −$1 -958%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode Jun 21 $2 −$1 -84%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 21 $0 −$3 -4106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$2 -62%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $0 −$4 -1342%
Counter-Strike: SemperFi Esports vs Liquid (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stag Jun 21 $0 +$1 +213%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 Winner SELL Nigma Galaxy 99¢ $2,440 26m
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 Winner SELL Nigma Galaxy 92¢ $47 26m
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 Winner SELL Nigma Galaxy 91¢ $463 26m
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 Winner SELL Nigma Galaxy 92¢ $229 26m
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 68¢ $356 38m
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 63¢ $297 40m
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 53¢ $733 44m
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 56¢ $186 44m
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 70¢ $423 53m
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Bald 1¢ $12 1h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Bald 10¢ $48 1h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Bald 5¢ $216 1h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Bald 18¢ $403 1h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Bald 35¢ $136 2h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Bald 12¢ $389 2h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Bald 12¢ $389 2h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Bald 36¢ $132 3h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Bald 45¢ $90 3h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Bald 42¢ $94 3h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Bald 41¢ $98 3h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner SELL OG 100¢ $344 25h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner SELL OG 100¢ $346 25h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner SELL InterActive Philippines 1¢ $1 26h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner SELL InterActive Philippines 3¢ $14 26h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY OG 70¢ $326 26h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY OG 38¢ $87 26h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 79¢ $458 26h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner BUY PlayTime 9¢ $216 39h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner BUY PlayTime 8¢ $241 40h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner BUY PlayTime 33¢ $145 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.04 · official $4.47 · 3500 history records