Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:43:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
8D 0x8d85…f4e0 sports 414 markets active 2h ago coverage 235d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$19,729 (+7%) realized +$17,150 · open +$2,579
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate47%185W / 208L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$657per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$3,443est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$5,775now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$63
7 days+$1,388
14 days+$1,803
30 days+$5,503
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$13,335
other 6% +$3,002
world 0% −$64
politics 0% −$79
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +19.5% +8.1% 62% 38% -2.0%
≤30d 199 +4.9% -5.1% 50% 44% -6.6%
≤90d 393 -0.2% -9.7% 47% 43% -4.7%
all 393 -0.2% -9.7% 47% 43% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 43% -4.7%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 41% -13.8%
15% -26.2% 38% -22.2%
20% -33.5% 34% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$738) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$477 vs −$358 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage
Net worth$5,775
Realized+$17,150
Unrealized+$2,579
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses185 / 208
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$3,443
Open positions21
Markets (closed)393 / 414
History coverage235d
Avg bet$657
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 393 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 7¢ 26¢ $464 $1,673 +$1,208 (+260%)
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 5¢ 22¢ $211 $904 +$692 (+327%)
Will Miguel Almirón score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 46¢ 92¢ $401 $805 +$403 (+100%)
Will Wilson Isidor score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 68¢ 94¢ $295 $405 +$111 (+38%)
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Morocco 60¢ 60¢ $406 $402 −$3 (-1%)
Will Endrick score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 72¢ $305 $374 +$69 (+23%)
Will Christian Pulisic score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 38¢ 49¢ $196 $254 +$58 (+29%)
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 6¢ 10¢ $87 $154 +$66 (+76%)
Will Raphinha score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 39¢ 78¢ $77 $153 +$76 (+97%)
Will Che Adams score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 41¢ 80¢ $74 $144 +$70 (+94%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 6¢ 14¢ $57 $126 +$69 (+120%)
Will Darwin Nunez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 46¢ $178 $122 −$56 (-32%)
Will Scott McTominay score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 42¢ 52¢ $77 $96 +$19 (+25%)
Will Memphis Depay score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 48¢ 50¢ $61 $64 +$3 (+5%)
Will a team from LEC (Europe / EMEA) win MSI 2026? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $29 $34 +$4 (+14%)
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 12¢ 1¢ $169 $21 −$148 (-88%)
Will BRION win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $74 $19 −$55 (-75%)
Will KT Rolster win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $20 $13 −$7 (-36%)
Will Marquinhos score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 23¢ $9 $11 +$2 (+25%)
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? Yes 31¢ 32¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will Kenan Yıldız score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 57¢ 30¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 115 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Matheus Cunha score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $8 +$13 +170%
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Jun 20 $1,074 −$76 -7%
Will Bradley Barcola score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $121 +$1 +1%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $214 −$7 -3%
Will Romelu Lukaku score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $460 −$80 -18%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $531 −$210 -40%
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $77 −$75 -97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $247 +$188 +76%
Will Keito Nakamura score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,287 +$16 +1%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $541 +$484 +90%
Will Virgil van Dijk score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1,444 +$19 +1%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $520 +$480 +92%
Will Jamal Musiala score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1,089 +$11 +1%
Will Kai Havertz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1,720 +$23 +1%
Will Leroy Sané score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $244 −$19 -8%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,570 +$760 +48%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $555 +$629 +113%
Will Breel Embolo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1,466 +$17 +1%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $528 +$495 +94%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $1,061 −$1,051 -99%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $273 +$452 +166%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $16 +$9 +55%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $438 +$611 +139%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $426 −$417 -98%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $871 −$858 -98%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playo Jun 13 $338 −$28 -8%
Will Legacy win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $235 +$219 +94%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 12 $1,503 −$1,485 -99%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $1,439 +$360 +25%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $1,019 +$1,357 +133%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $508 −$502 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $591 −$581 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $154 −$151 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $298 −$292 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $41 −$40 -97%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $798 +$518 +65%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $385 +$246 +64%
LoL: Partizan Sangal vs WLGaming Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $2,359 −$205 -9%
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $1,062 +$1,457 +137%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $786 −$773 -98%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $406 +$183 +45%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $1,096 +$946 +86%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $968 −$965 -100%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 10 $1,988 +$1,358 +68%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $493 +$519 +105%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $660 +$1,060 +160%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs GOAL - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $1,498 +$634 +42%
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs BOMBA Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $58 −$57 -98%
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Frites Esports Club (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stag Jun 09 $8 +$2 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 60¢ $410 1h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? SELL Yes 63¢ $997 1h
Will Wilson Isidor score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $5 2h
Will Wilson Isidor score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $5 2h
Will Wilson Isidor score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 76¢ $84 2h
Will Raphinha score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 39¢ $79 3h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $59 8h
Will Christian Pulisic score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 38¢ $200 10h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,015 11h
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 32h
Will Memphis Depay score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 49¢ $1 34h
Will a team from LEC (Europe / EMEA) win MSI 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 46h
Will Memphis Depay score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 49¢ $2 47h
Will Kenan Yıldız score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 57¢ $3 2d
Will Memphis Depay score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 48¢ $59 2d
Will Bradley Barcola score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 99¢ $121 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 42¢ $206 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 42¢ $214 3d
Will a team from LEC (Europe / EMEA) win MSI 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $30 4d
Will Darwin Nunez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 70¢ $201 4d
Will Romelu Lukaku score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 70¢ $14 4d
Will Romelu Lukaku score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 72¢ $365 4d
Will Romelu Lukaku score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 86¢ $460 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $214 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 51¢ $302 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $105 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $211 4d
Will Endrick score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 49¢ $7 4d
Will Endrick score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 49¢ $78 4d
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $90 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,774.97 · official $5,775.06 (match) · 2668 history records