Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:07:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8d83…bece sports 226 markets active 2h ago coverage 173d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$21 (-0%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate9%21W / 204L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 28% −$5
sports 26% −$3
other 21% −$6
economics 7% −$1
crypto 5% −$3
culture 5% −$3
tech 4% −$1
world 2% −$1
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 32 -0.3% -9.8% 12% 0% -9.8%
all 225 -0.2% -9.7% 9% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

173d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses21 / 204
Open positions1
Markets (closed)225 / 226
History coverage173d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 225 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 96¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 09 $26 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $25 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 15 $29 $0 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $106 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 02 $275 $0 -0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 01 $35 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 01 $28 $0 +1%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $72 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 31 $84 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Mar 31 $61 −$2 -3%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Mar 30 $74 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 30 $32 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 30 $72 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 29 $88 $0 -0%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 29 $38 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 29 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Mar 29 $91 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 28 $28 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 28 $39 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 28 $40 $0 +0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Mar 27 $106 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 27 $135 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 27 $175 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 26 $178 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 26 $80 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 26 $66 $0 -0%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 25 $67 $0 -0%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $56 $0 -1%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Mar 25 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Mar 25 $49 $0 -0%
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 24 $41 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Mar 24 $35 −$1 -2%
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 23 $28 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 22 $86 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Mar 22 $31 $0 +0%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 22 $42 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 21 $59 $0 -0%
Will Arkansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 21 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 20 $40 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 20 $41 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 20 $152 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 19 $167 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 18 $89 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 17 $44 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 17 $41 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 16 $154 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? Mar 16 $36 $0 -0%
Will Akshay Bhatia win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 16 $42 $0 -1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 16 $108 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 15 $86 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $30 1h
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $26 12d
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $26 12d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $25 24d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $25 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $29 36d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $29 37d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $32 74d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $32 75d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $31 79d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $31 81d
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $35 81d
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $35 81d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $28 81d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $28 81d
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $38 81d
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $38 82d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $31 82d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $31 82d
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 96¢ $27 82d
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 96¢ $27 82d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 95¢ $35 82d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 95¢ $25 82d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 95¢ $10 82d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $32 82d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $32 83d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $29 83d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $29 83d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $30 83d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $30 83d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.24 · official $30.24 (match) · 834 history records