Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:28:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8d81…283d crypto 258 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$33 (-5%) realized −$33 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate49%126W / 132L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day36.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days−$23
30 days−$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$90
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-27.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -0.8% -10.2% 73% 50% -6.7%
≤30d 258 -20.1% -27.7% 49% 40% -24.1%
≤90d 258 -20.1% -27.7% 49% 40% -24.1%
all 258 -20.1% -27.7% 49% 40% -24.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.7% 40% -24.1%
10% ← realistic here -34.6% 24% -31.4%
15% -40.9% 12% -38.0%
20% -46.7% 8% -44.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses126 / 132
Open positions0
Markets (closed)258 / 258
History coverage19d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day36.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 258 Trades
no open positions (77 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 02 $2 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$3 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 02 $2 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 02 $4 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 02 $4 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 02 $7 −$3 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 02 $9 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 02 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 02 $2 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 02 $7 −$3 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 02 $3 −$1 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 02 $9 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 02 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 02 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 02 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 02 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 02 $3 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 02 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 02 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 02 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 02 $2 $0 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $3 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.64 · official $1.64 (match) · 827 history records