Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:33:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8d80…367c other 128 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$62 (-4%) realized −$77 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate8%10W / 110L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit9%portable
Net worth$135now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$112
7 days+$23
14 days+$23
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% +$21
crypto 5% +$17
culture 5% −$78
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-27.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 119 -19.4% -27.1% 8% 8% -7.7%
≤30d 119 -19.4% -27.1% 8% 8% -7.7%
≤90d 119 -19.4% -27.1% 8% 8% -7.7%
all 120 -20.1% -27.7% 8% 8% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.7% 8% -13.2%
10% -34.6% 8% -21.5%
15% -40.9% 8% -29.1%
20% -46.7% 8% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$104 vs −$10 · ×10.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$135
Realized−$77
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses10 / 110
Open positions8
Markets (closed)120 / 128
History coverage92d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit9%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Yes 12¢ 26¢ $20 $43 +$23 (+117%)
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? Yes 6¢ 24¢ $10 $41 +$31 (+308%)
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $15 $19 +$4 (+28%)
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 3 Egypt? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 3 Egypt? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $8 $3 −$5 (-64%)
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 103 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $45 +$35 +80%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $31 −$21 -67%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $24 −$21 -84%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $20 −$12 -61%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $56 −$30 -54%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $21 −$11 -55%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $6 −$1 -12%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $10 −$4 -41%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $8 −$3 -34%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $6 −$2 -26%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $8 −$1 -9%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $7 +$51 +712%
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 2 Tunisia? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 2 Tunisia? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 2 Tunisia? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 2 Tunisia? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $6 +$91 +1467%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 3 Egypt? BUY Yes 6¢ $8 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 3 Egypt? BUY Yes 3¢ $9 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 9¢ $15 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 14¢ $18 2h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 2h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 2h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 2h
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 100¢ $80 2h
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 55¢ $45 2h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 3h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 3h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 7¢ $8 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $30 11h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 11h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 11h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 Egypt? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 12h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? SELL Yes 11¢ $7 12h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? SELL Yes 12¢ $7 12h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? SELL Yes 12¢ $8 12h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 2 Egypt? SELL Yes 3¢ $6 12h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? SELL Yes 13¢ $8 12h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 14¢ $9 12h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 12h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 12h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 Egypt? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 12h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 12h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? SELL Yes 7¢ $7 12h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 7¢ $9 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $135.00 · official $135.00 (match) · 165 history records