trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | +1.8% | -7.9% | 50% | 0% | -7.4% |
| ≤30d | 7 | +1.5% | -8.1% | 43% | 0% | -7.7% |
| ≤90d | 7 | +1.5% | -8.1% | 43% | 0% | -7.7% |
| all | 24 | +0.1% | -9.4% | 42% | 0% | -8.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.4% | 0% | -8.4% |
| 10% | -18.1% | 0% | -17.1% |
| 15% | -26.0% | 0% | -25.1% |
| 20% | -33.2% | 0% | -32.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 9¢ | 9¢ | $7 | $7 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | No | 90¢ | 96¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+6%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | Jun 15 | $47 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Jun 15 | $47 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by | Jun 14 | $48 | −$1 | -3% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 14 | $68 | +$7 | +10% |
| Netanyahu out by June 30? | Jun 13 | $40 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | Jun 09 | $13 | $0 | +3% |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | Jun 08 | $38 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 13 | $2 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Dec 13 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Jun 26 | $8 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | May 31 | $9 | $0 | -4% |
| Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | May 19 | $4 | $0 | -4% |
| Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec | May 13 | $19 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? | May 11 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Socialist Party of Albania win the most seats in the next Alb | May 11 | $2 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? | May 10 | $10 | $0 | -4% |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec | May 09 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? | May 07 | $10 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? | May 07 | $9 | $0 | +1% |
| Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? | Apr 25 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Newcastle finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? | Apr 17 | $9 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Apr 17 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 29 | $12 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 27 | $12 | $0 | -0% |