Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:57:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8d7b…9545 other 131 markets active 1h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+0%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate15%20W / 110L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$185per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$17
politics 28% −$8
sports 14% +$31
tech 3% −$1
crypto 2% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 13 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 78 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
all 130 +3.1% -6.7% 15% 8% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 8% -9.5%
10% -15.7% 8% -18.2%
15% -23.8% 7% -26.1%
20% -31.3% 7% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×5.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses20 / 110
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)130 / 131
History coverage133d
Avg bet$185
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 21 $195 $0 -0%
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 21 $34 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 Jun 21 $59 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $18 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $31 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $21 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $23 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $22 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $207 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $208 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $149 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $172 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $324 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $378 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $176 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 20 $175 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $177 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $407 $0 -0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 18 $418 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $162 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $713 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $146 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $202 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $160 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $166 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $181 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $206 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $369 −$1 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $207 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $968 −$1 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 17 $204 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $202 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $171 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $356 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $402 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 15 $185 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $194 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $180 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $163 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $154 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 12 $318 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $146 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $171 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $410 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 08 $170 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 08 $169 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $155 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $169 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 07 $179 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $33 1h
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $29 5h
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $29 7h
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $34 7h
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $34 10h
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $33 16h
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $33 23h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $18 37h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $18 2d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $31 7d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $31 7d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $26 20d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $26 21d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $21 21d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $21 21d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $23 21d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $23 22d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $22 22d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $22 23d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $207 23d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $207 24d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $208 24d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $208 25d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $149 25d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $149 26d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $172 27d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $172 27d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $144 27d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $144 29d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $180 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.98 · official $32.98 (match) · 382 history records