Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:14:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
8D 0x8d77…4a28 other 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$10 (+12%) realized +$5 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +32% what you keep after slip
Net edge+32%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%2W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+31.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +45.7% +31.8% 100% 100% +31.8%
≤30d 2 +45.7% +31.8% 100% 100% +31.8%
≤90d 2 +45.7% +31.8% 100% 100% +31.8%
all 2 +45.7% +31.8% 100% 100% +31.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +31.8% 100% +31.8%
10% +19.2% 100% +19.2%
15% +7.7% 100% +7.7%
20% -2.9% 0% -2.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +46% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +46% · $-wt +46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses2 / 0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)2 / 3
History coverage1d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 70¢ 84¢ $25 $30 +$5 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$14 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $25 +$12 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $25 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $25 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.18 · official $30.18 (match) · 5 history records