Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:52:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8d76…ac88 crypto 279 markets active 2d ago coverage 7d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (126 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$83 (-2%) realized −$83 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate48%134W / 145L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day125.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$165
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (126 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 231 -7.9% -16.7% 50% 41% -13.5%
≤30d 279 -11.1% -19.6% 48% 39% -13.8%
≤90d 279 -11.1% -19.6% 48% 39% -13.8%
all 279 -11.1% -19.6% 48% 39% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover125.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.6% 39% -13.8%
10% ← realistic here -27.3% 23% -22.0%
15% -34.3% 13% -29.6%
20% -40.7% 6% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$83
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses134 / 145
Open positions0
Markets (closed)279 / 279
History coverage7d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day125.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 279 Trades
no open positions (71 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $19 −$15 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +78%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$6 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$6 -56%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +46%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$7 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$6 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$5 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$6 +110%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$4 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $12 +$10 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$3 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 13 $13 +$5 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$3 +38%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $3 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 36h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 36h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 36h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $7 36h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $8 36h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $9 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $8 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $6 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $8 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $7 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 37h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $7 37h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $8 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $2 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 37h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $2 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $8 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $7 42h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 42h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $6 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $7 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 963 history records