Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:43:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8d73…b8ad politics 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%2W / 34L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$475per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$14
14 days−$14
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 39% −$11
other 36% −$6
world 12% −$2
economics 6% −$1
tech 6% −$1
crypto 1% $0
finance 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 26 -0.1% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 36 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
all 36 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 97% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,014) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses2 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage83d
Avg bet$475
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Dani Olmo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $47 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $36 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $24 $0 -0%
Will Tallon Griekspoor be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 16 $1,014 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $60 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $1,042 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,067 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $52 $0 -0%
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 15 $1,082 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,056 −$2 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 15 $1,002 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $81 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $1,051 −$2 -0%
Will Saeed Jalili be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 13 $1,041 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,055 −$2 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $52 $0 -0%
Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 25 $33 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $21 $0 -0%
Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 22 $992 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by May 31? May 22 $69 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $968 $0 -0%
Will Austin FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 22 $926 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? May 21 $58 $0 +1%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 20 $941 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? May 20 $19 $0 -1%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $1,014 −$2 -0%
Will Alexei Popyrin win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 19 $50 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX? May 19 $26 $0 -0%
Will Jude Bellingham win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 19 $962 $0 +0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $957 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on March 30? Apr 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Mar 30 $112 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 30 $16 $0 -0%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 27 $98 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Mar 27 $51 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $150 in March? Mar 27 $26 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Dani Olmo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $47 1h
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $36 1h
Will Dani Olmo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $47 1h
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $17 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $14 1h
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $19 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $11 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $24 2h
Will Tallon Griekspoor be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $1,013 2d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $59 2d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $26 2d
Will Tallon Griekspoor be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $985 2d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $17 2d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,040 2d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $16 2d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,028 2d
Will Tallon Griekspoor be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $11 2d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $773 2d
Will Tallon Griekspoor be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $18 2d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $292 2d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $14 2d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,067 2d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $52 3d
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $1,080 3d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $14 3d
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $1,044 3d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $14 3d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,055 3d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $23 3d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,017 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 116 history records