Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:44:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8d70…cc5e weather 462 markets active 1h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$26 · open +$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate53%244W / 213L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day15.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$228now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days−$29
14 days+$95
30 days+$132
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 48% −$119
weather 47% +$470
sports 2% −$392
world 1% −$23
other 1% −$31
politics 1% −$4
tech 0% −$7
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -12.4% -20.7% 61% 52% -12.4%
≤30d 161 -19.4% -27.1% 51% 38% -6.3%
≤90d 396 -19.3% -27.0% 52% 35% -9.1%
all 457 -16.4% -24.4% 53% 36% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.4% 36% -10.2%
10% -31.6% 25% -18.8%
15% -38.2% 18% -26.6%
20% -44.3% 13% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$11 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$228
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses244 / 213
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)457 / 462
History coverage120d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day15.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 457 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? No 84¢ 96¢ $157 $179 +$22 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 17? No 74¢ 74¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? No 56¢ 60¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 17? No 71¢ 72¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? No 59¢ 59¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 119 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $33 +$17 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $124 +$21 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $12 +$3 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $14 −$14 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 +$10 +50%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $19 +$11 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $34 +$16 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$2 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $83 +$7 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $42 −$42 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 +$4 +78%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $137 +$22 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $13 +$2 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$4 +84%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $131 +$26 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 10? Jun 11 $3 +$2 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 10? Jun 11 $14 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 10? Jun 10 $24 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $15 +$6 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $313 −$86 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $15 −$15 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 9? Jun 10 $21 +$4 +22%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $8 −$8 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 9? Jun 09 $12 +$8 +70%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 9? Jun 09 $225 +$15 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 +$5 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $13 −$8 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 9? Jun 09 $6 −$6 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 8? Jun 09 $11 +$4 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 8? Jun 09 $15 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $8 −$8 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 8? Jun 08 $11 +$4 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $117 +$41 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 8? Jun 08 $115 +$21 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $6 −$3 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 8? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 71¢ $11 56m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 17? BUY No 74¢ $19 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? BUY No 56¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 59¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? BUY No 84¢ $158 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 29¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? BUY No 65¢ $33 27h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 42¢ $3 27h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 87¢ $18 27h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 86¢ $9 27h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 85¢ $34 27h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 85¢ $56 27h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 54¢ $14 27h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 80¢ $8 27h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? BUY No 67¢ $10 27h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 79¢ $12 27h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? BUY No 93¢ $42 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? BUY No 62¢ $9 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? BUY No 62¢ $9 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? BUY No 68¢ $6 5d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? BUY No 67¢ $34 5d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? BUY No 44¢ $6 5d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 65¢ $10 5d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 65¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 66¢ $7 5d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 11? BUY No 33¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 11? BUY No 85¢ $36 6d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 11? BUY No 82¢ $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 11? BUY No 82¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 11? BUY No 85¢ $8 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $228.14 · official $228.02 (match) · 2158 history records