Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:28:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
8D 0x8d64…0100 other 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 356d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$703 (+4%) realized +$38 · open +$43
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate53%18W / 16L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$556per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$198now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$66
7 days−$66
14 days−$66
30 days−$116
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% −$475
crypto 12% +$483
world 9% +$37
sports 7% +$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -12.8% -21.1% 60% 40% -12.5%
≤30d 8 -23.2% -30.5% 50% 38% -14.2%
≤90d 8 -23.2% -30.5% 50% 38% -14.2%
all 34 +4.9% -5.1% 53% 44% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.1% 44% -9.3%
10% -14.2% 29% -18.0%
15% -22.5% 26% -25.9%
20% -30.1% 21% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$1,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +30% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$126 vs −$139 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

356d coverage
Net worth$198
Realized+$38
Unrealized+$43
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses18 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage356d
Avg bet$556
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 74¢ 94¢ $155 $198 +$43 (+28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 +$42 +83%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$5 +51%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 13 $1,800 +$37 +2%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $81 −$80 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1,063 −$50 -5%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $102 +$80 +78%
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch? Mar 12 $1,010 −$831 -82%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Dec 30 $1,000 −$58 -6%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Dec 30 $3,072 +$505 +16%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Dec 30 $2,200 +$133 +6%
Will Stable launch a token in 2025? Nov 26 $1,000 −$201 -20%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Nov 26 $1,000 +$136 +14%
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 09 $1,250 −$250 -20%
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31? Nov 01 $500 +$53 +11%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 01 $1,000 +$98 +10%
Will Ethereum reach $5200 in October? Oct 27 $300 +$157 +52%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Oct 23 $200 −$80 -40%
Meteora FDV above $1B one day after launch? Oct 23 $200 −$143 -72%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Oct 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Oct 20 $1 +$2 +194%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 19, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Oct 20 $100 +$78 +78%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Fnatic (BO1) Oct 16 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Gen.G (BO1) Oct 16 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) Oct 14 $500 +$109 +22%
LoL: T1 vs Invictus Gaming - Game 3 Winner Oct 14 $400 +$49 +12%
Solana all time high before 2026? Oct 10 $150 +$128 +85%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? Oct 10 $600 +$281 +47%
Will Trump Media invest in Solana before July? Sep 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on September 14? Sep 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Solana reach $250 September 8–14? Sep 15 $100 −$100 -100%
WLFI market cap (FDV) >$16B one day after launch? Sep 06 $1,000 +$273 +27%
Pump.fun >$4B market cap (FDV) one day after launch? Jul 16 $200 +$94 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 74¢ $156 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $51 9h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $16 9h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 19h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 66¢ $51 22h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 42h
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 49¢ $81 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1,800 15d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 15d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 50¢ $182 15d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 15d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL No 83¢ $1,332 15d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY No 62¢ $1,011 15d
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch? SELL Yes 12¢ $179 94d
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch? BUY Yes 60¢ $300 136d
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch? BUY Yes 70¢ $99 145d
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch? BUY Yes 77¢ $200 163d
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch? BUY Yes 76¢ $300 164d
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch? BUY Yes 70¢ $111 164d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? SELL Yes 81¢ $942 166d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? SELL Yes 98¢ $2,072 166d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? SELL Yes 98¢ $44 166d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? SELL Yes 98¢ $291 166d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? SELL Yes 98¢ $1,079 166d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? SELL Yes 98¢ $91 166d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? BUY Yes 86¢ $1,000 166d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $2,333 166d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? BUY Yes 84¢ $3,072 167d
Will Stable launch a token in 2025? SELL Yes 73¢ $799 200d
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? BUY Yes 88¢ $1,000 216d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $197.94 · official $197.94 (match) · 77 history records