trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 12 | -28.7% | -35.5% | 50% | 42% | -22.0% |
| ≤30d | 13 | -20.2% | -27.8% | 54% | 46% | -19.7% |
| ≤90d | 18 | -36.1% | -42.2% | 44% | 39% | -24.5% |
| all | 18 | -36.1% | -42.2% | 44% | 39% | -24.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -42.2% | 39% | -24.5% |
| 10% | -47.7% | 33% | -31.7% |
| 15% | -52.7% | 28% | -38.3% |
| 20% | -57.4% | 22% | -44.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? | Yes | 71¢ | 72¢ | $50 | $50 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Will England win on 2026-06-23? | Yes | 81¢ | 81¢ | $50 | $50 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? | Yes | 83¢ | 84¢ | $50 | $50 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? | Yes | 52¢ | 50¢ | $20 | $19 | −$1 (-3%) |
| Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? | No | 34¢ | 74¢ | $8 | $18 | +$10 (+119%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | No | 43¢ | 52¢ | $10 | $12 | +$2 (+20%) |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 65¢ | 93¢ | $8 | $12 | +$4 (+45%) |
| Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao 2 | Mayweather | 63¢ | 62¢ | $8 | $8 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? | No | 81¢ | 42¢ | $12 | $6 | −$6 (-48%) |
| Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 10¢ | 1¢ | $6 | $1 | −$5 (-87%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will France win on 2026-06-22? | Jun 23 | $50 | +$5 | +10% |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? | Jun 22 | $51 | +$29 | +57% |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | Jun 21 | $51 | +$26 | +52% |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | Jun 20 | $10 | +$5 | +48% |
| Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? | Jun 20 | $50 | −$50 | -99% |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? | Jun 20 | $50 | −$50 | -99% |
| Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? | Jun 20 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? | Jun 19 | $20 | +$7 | +32% |
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? | Jun 18 | $40 | +$23 | +57% |
| Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? | Jun 18 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? | Jun 18 | $5 | −$5 | -98% |
| Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? | Jun 18 | $20 | −$20 | -99% |
| Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath | Jun 13 | $10 | +$8 | +82% |
| Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b | May 18 | $10 | −$10 | -97% |
| Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be l | May 18 | $10 | −$10 | -96% |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks | May 18 | $7 | −$7 | -98% |
| Pistons vs. Cavaliers | May 15 | $15 | −$15 | -99% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7PM ET | May 15 | $50 | +$7 | +13% |