trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 5¢ | 5¢ | $2 | $2 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 24¢ | 20¢ | $2 | $2 | −$0 (-15%) |
| Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? | Yes | 31¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-100%) |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? | Yes | 73¢ | 0¢ | $14 | $0 | −$14 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? | Jun 13 | $5 | −$5 | -98% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? | Jun 09 | $14 | −$14 | -98% |
| Will England win? | Jun 07 | $10 | +$4 | +41% |
| Market | side | price | size | when |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? | BUY Yes | 24¢ | $2 | 53m |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY Yes | 5¢ | $3 | 10h |
| Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? | BUY Yes | 31¢ | $5 | 22h |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? | BUY Yes | 73¢ | $14 | 4d |
| Will England win? | BUY Yes | 70¢ | $10 | 8d |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | -53.0% | -57.5% | 33% | 33% | -55.7% |
| ≤30d | 3 | -53.0% | -57.5% | 33% | 33% | -55.7% |
| ≤90d | 3 | -53.0% | -57.5% | 33% | 33% | -55.7% |
| all | 3 | -53.0% | -57.5% | 33% | 33% | -55.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -57.5% | 33% | -55.7% |
| 10% | -61.6% | 33% | -59.9% |
| 15% | -65.3% | 33% | -63.8% |
| 20% | -68.7% | 0% | -67.4% |