Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:22:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8D
0x8d61…12f6
sports · 69 markets active 121d ago
0.0score
−$17,754 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$17,754 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$17,754
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses29 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)69 / 69
History coverage446d
Avg bet$18,391
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%
Chart Positions 0 History 69 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Warriors vs. Timberwolves Warriors 19¢ 0¢ $3,800 $0 −$3,800 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? No 19¢ 0¢ $4,467 $0 −$4,467 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Natus Vincere 59¢ 0¢ $16,225 $0 −$16,225 (-100%)
Boxing: Canelo Álvarez vs. Terence Crawford Canelo 62¢ 0¢ $32,240 $0 −$32,240 (-100%)
Will Atletico Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $159 $0 −$159 (-100%)
Will Bryn Kenney win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will USA win the 2025 Ryder Cup? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $1,797 $0 −$1,797 (-100%)
Michael Chandler vs. Paddy Pimblett Chandler 42¢ 0¢ $14,760 $0 −$14,760 (-100%)
Nothing Ever Happens No 48¢ 0¢ $3,741 $0 −$3,741 (-100%)
Chris Eubank Jr. vs. Conor Benn Benn 38¢ 0¢ $5,264 $0 −$5,264 (-100%)
Champions League Quarterfinals: Barcelona vs. Dortmund Dortmund 1¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-100%)
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024? No 0¢ 0¢ $719 $0 −$719 (-100%)
Cavaliers vs. Celtics Cavaliers 60¢ 0¢ $37,826 $0 −$37,826 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A Astralis 25¢ 0¢ $19,750 $0 −$19,750 (-100%)
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $33,982 $0 −$33,982 (-100%)
Will Ludvig Aberg win The 2025 Masters? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1,350 $0 −$1,350 (-100%)
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $1,078 $0 −$1,078 (-100%)
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $558 $0 −$558 (-100%)
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? No 39¢ 0¢ $8,151 $0 −$8,151 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO3) Spirit 46¢ 0¢ $29,900 $0 −$29,900 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs FaZe (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group B BC.Game Esports 34¢ 0¢ $21,203 $0 −$21,203 (-100%)
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with China before July? No 43¢ 0¢ $1,133 $0 −$1,133 (-100%)
Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $2,315 $0 −$2,315 (-100%)
Bitcoin above $83,000 on March 21? No 53¢ 0¢ $20,469 $0 −$20,469 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Feb 11 $3,405 +$205 +6%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Krakow Playoffs Feb 11 $22,868 +$11,780 +52%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Krakow Playoffs Feb 08 $13,563 −$13,563 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Krakow Playoffs Feb 07 $77,062 −$77,061 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Krakow Playoffs Feb 07 $102,232 −$102,231 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A Feb 03 $19,750 −$19,750 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group B Feb 03 $2,443 +$4,355 +178%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A Feb 03 $12,925 +$18,296 +142%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs FaZe (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group B Feb 02 $21,203 −$21,203 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Krakow Play-In Feb 01 $3,796 +$2,129 +56%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Feb 01 $44,130 +$10,559 +24%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? Jan 29 $18,888 −$3 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in January? Jan 27 $8,253 −$8,247 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jan 03 $13,493 +$2,407 +18%
Epstein client list released in 2025? Jan 03 $7,966 +$560 +7%
Maduro out in 2025? Jan 03 $12,110 +$1,346 +11%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jan 03 $32,568 +$3,619 +11%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Dec 20 $8 +$23 +300%
Who will win Jake Paul vs Anthony Joshua? Dec 20 $6,827 +$1,297 +19%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Dec 13 $16,225 −$16,225 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO3) Dec 13 $29,900 −$29,900 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) Dec 12 $22,658 +$23,519 +104%
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? Dec 10 $2,434 −$2,434 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs paiN (BO3) Dec 09 $5,200 +$4,800 +92%
Will Bryn Kenney win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? Dec 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Team Falcons (BO3) Dec 08 $6,372 +$9,411 +148%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) Dec 06 $9,048 +$8,352 +92%
Cavaliers vs. Celtics Oct 29 $37,826 −$37,826 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? Oct 29 $1,031 −$406 -39%
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? Sep 30 $182,623 +$192,102 +105%
Will USA win the 2025 Ryder Cup? Sep 27 $1,797 −$1,797 -100%
Boxing: Canelo Álvarez vs. Terence Crawford Sep 13 $32,240 −$32,240 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 13 $4,467 −$4,467 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Sep 12 $947 +$488 +52%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? Sep 12 $46,164 +$5,274 +11%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? May 31 $33,986 −$33,982 -100%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 31 $1,391 −$1,078 -78%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 19 $8,151 −$8,151 -100%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $16,235 +$1,486 +9%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2025? May 17 $898 −$898 -100%
US-China trade deal before June? May 11 $92,136 −$92,133 -100%
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with China before July? May 10 $1,133 −$1,133 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $101000 and $103000 on May 9? May 09 $8,269 +$11,552 +140%
Warriors vs. Timberwolves May 08 $3,800 −$3,800 -100%
Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope? May 08 $2,315 −$2,315 -100%
Trump Admin recommends removing fluoride from water by April 29? May 07 $2,442 +$649 +27%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? May 07 $55,743 +$29,816 +54%
Chris Eubank Jr. vs. Conor Benn Apr 26 $5,264 −$5,264 -100%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $558 −$558 -100%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $6,733 −$6,733 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 41% −$332,088
other 34% +$196,219
world 14% +$48,905
crypto 7% +$69,205
tech 3% +$3,619
politics 1% −$3,613
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 88¢ $3,611 121d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Krakow Playoffs BUY Vitality 66¢ $2 124d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Krakow Playoffs BUY Vitality 66¢ $10 124d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Krakow Playoffs BUY Vitality 66¢ $389 124d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Krakow Playoffs BUY Vitality 66¢ $78 124d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Krakow Playoffs BUY Vitality 66¢ $385 124d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Krakow Playoffs BUY Vitality 66¢ $63 124d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Krakow Playoffs BUY Vitality 66¢ $11 124d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Krakow Playoffs BUY Vitality 66¢ $19 124d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Krakow Playoffs BUY Vitality 66¢ $49 124d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Krakow Playoffs BUY Vitality 66¢ $12 124d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Krakow Playoffs BUY Vitality 66¢ $68 124d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Krakow Playoffs BUY Vitality 66¢ $349 124d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Krakow Playoffs BUY Vitality 66¢ $72 124d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Krakow Playoffs BUY Vitality 66¢ $27 124d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Krakow Playoffs BUY Vitality 66¢ $186 124d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Krakow Playoffs BUY Vitality 66¢ $414 124d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Krakow Playoffs BUY Vitality 66¢ $46 124d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Krakow Playoffs BUY Vitality 66¢ $10 124d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Krakow Playoffs BUY Vitality 66¢ $22 124d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Krakow Playoffs BUY Vitality 66¢ $650 124d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Krakow Playoffs BUY Vitality 66¢ $192 124d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Krakow Playoffs BUY Vitality 66¢ $1,307 124d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Krakow Playoffs BUY Vitality 66¢ $971 124d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Krakow Playoffs BUY Vitality 66¢ $10 124d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Krakow Playoffs BUY Vitality 66¢ $37 124d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Krakow Playoffs BUY MOUZ 39¢ $192 124d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Krakow Playoffs BUY MOUZ 39¢ $639 124d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Krakow Playoffs BUY MOUZ 39¢ $6 124d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Krakow Playoffs BUY Vitality 66¢ $10 124d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-28.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 69 -20.9% -28.4% 42% 36% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.4% 36% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -35.3% 28% -19.3%
15% -41.5% 25% -27.1%
20% -47.2% 25% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2071 history records