Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T00:14:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8d60…3180 other 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$37 (-22%) realized −$29 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%3W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$100
sports 27% +$65
crypto 6% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +13.5% +2.7% 25% 25% -33.4%
≤30d 12 +13.5% +2.7% 25% 25% -33.4%
≤90d 12 +13.5% +2.7% 25% 25% -33.4%
all 12 +13.5% +2.7% 25% 25% -33.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.7% 25% -33.4%
10% -7.1% 25% -39.8%
15% -16.1% 25% -45.6%
20% -24.3% 25% -51.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$13 · ×2.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$29
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses3 / 9
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)12 / 17
History coverage3d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$25 +246%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$35 +340%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 +$19 +477%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 3h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 3h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $9 21h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 21h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 21h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $35 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 22h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 22h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 24h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 24h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $45 24h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 26h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 27h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 28h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $23 29h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 31h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 31h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.17 · official $13.17 (match) · 22 history records