Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:17:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

8D 0x8d5f…b129 world 5 markets active 5d ago coverage 81d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip

Net edge-8%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate100%4W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$200per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$205now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 81d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-8.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	1	+1.9%	-7.8%	100%	0%	-7.8%
≤90d	4	+1.1%	-8.5%	100%	0%	-8.4%
all	4	+1.1%	-8.5%	100%	0%	-8.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-8.5%	0%	-8.4%
10%	-17.3%	0%	-17.1%
15%	-25.3%	0%	-25.1%
20%	-32.6%	0%	-32.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 50% · top 2 79% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +1% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$2 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage

Net worth$205

Realized+$6

Unrealized+$1

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses4 / 0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)4 / 5

History coverage81d

Avg bet$200

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	99¢	100¢	$204	$205	+$1 (+0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	May 30	$201	+$4	+2%
Trump out as President by April 30?	May 02	$199	+$2	+1%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?	Apr 03	$73	$0	+0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March	Apr 03	$125	+$1	+1%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	BUY No	99¢	$204	4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	BUY No	98¢	$201	44d
Trump out as President by April 30?	BUY No	99¢	$199	65d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	SELL No	97¢	$198	65d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	BUY No	97¢	$199	74d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?	BUY No	100¢	$73	85d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March	BUY Yes	99¢	$125	85d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $204.51 · official $204.51 (match) · 11 history records