Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:45:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8d5e…2fe2 crypto 768 markets active 0h ago coverage 560d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$281 (-5%) realized −$281 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate62%478W / 290L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$47
7 days−$93
14 days−$201
30 days−$208
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$272
sports 13% −$48
other 5% −$37
politics 1% +$44
world 0% −$9
economics 0% +$1
finance 0% −$3
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 302 -6.5% -15.4% 71% 24% -13.5%
≤30d 538 -3.6% -12.8% 65% 34% -13.5%
≤90d 613 -6.3% -15.2% 61% 33% -14.1%
all 768 -8.0% -16.7% 62% 38% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 38% -14.6%
10% -24.7% 26% -22.8%
15% -32.0% 14% -30.2%
20% -38.6% 6% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

560d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$281
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses478 / 290
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)768 / 768
History coverage560d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 768 Trades
no open positions (145 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$2 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$3 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$2 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$3 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$2 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $8 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$2 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$3 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$3 +51%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$2 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$2 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$3 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +56%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $0 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2539 history records