Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:19:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8d5d…126f other 149 markets active 3h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$22 (-0%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate11%17W / 131L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$217per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$17
politics 30% −$12
sports 8% +$7
tech 4% −$1
economics 4% −$1
crypto 3% −$1
finance 1% $0
world 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 18 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 103 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 148 +1.7% -8.0% 11% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 3% -9.6%
10% -16.8% 1% -18.2%
15% -24.8% 1% -26.1%
20% -32.2% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 79% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×5.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses17 / 131
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)148 / 149
History coverage132d
Avg bet$217
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 148 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 21 $35 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $260 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $215 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $27 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $33 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $35 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $30 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $21 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $234 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $168 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $217 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $152 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $530 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $158 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 25 $154 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $183 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $342 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $191 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $1,165 −$1 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $225 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $178 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $203 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $222 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 14 $512 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $165 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $410 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $409 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $216 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $509 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $373 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $47 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $345 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $182 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 06 $134 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 05 $5 $0 +1%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $158 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $153 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $167 $0 -0%
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 02 $168 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 01 $342 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $363 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $153 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $224 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $178 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 27 $224 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $599 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $374 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $227 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $182 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $368 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $33 2h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $35 6h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $35 7d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $38 15d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $38 16d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $38 16d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $38 17d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 17d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 18d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 19d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 20d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $35 20d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $35 20d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 20d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 21d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $21 21d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $21 21d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $26 21d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $26 22d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $168 22d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $168 24d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $217 24d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $217 24d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $152 24d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $152 25d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $219 25d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $219 26d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $158 26d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $158 26d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $154 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.98 · official $32.98 (match) · 469 history records