Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:36:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8d5d…191d sports 134 markets active 2h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$92,179 (-12%) realized −$102,642 · open +$10,463
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%60W / 70L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5,607per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$5,996est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$42,120now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34,731
7 days−$35,196
14 days−$72,786
30 days−$38,922
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$40,270
other 46% −$51,305
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -37.0% -43.0% 30% 30% -34.7%
≤30d 41 -10.4% -18.9% 46% 46% -20.3%
≤90d 130 -7.8% -16.6% 46% 46% -22.4%
all 130 -7.8% -16.6% 46% 46% -22.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.6% 46% -22.4%
10% ← realistic here -24.6% 46% -29.8%
15% -31.8% 45% -36.6%
20% -38.5% 43% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$7,549) neutral
Persistence
early +3% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4,794 vs −$5,566 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$42,120
Realized−$102,642
Unrealized+$10,463
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses60 / 70
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$5,996
Open positions4
Markets (closed)130 / 134
History coverage67d
Avg bet$5,607
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 50¢ 80¢ $16,849 $27,127 +$10,278 (+61%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Qatar 48¢ 50¢ $13,808 $14,240 +$432 (+3%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $500 $458 −$42 (-8%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $500 $295 −$204 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $14,657 +$6,176 +42%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $28,601 +$24,612 +86%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $3,750 +$3,942 +105%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $932 −$932 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $4,769 −$4,769 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30,056 −$30,056 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3,507 −$3,507 -100%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 15 $5,008 −$5,008 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $9,748 −$361 -4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $25,294 −$25,294 -100%
Will RC Deportivo La Coruña win on 2026-05-24? Jun 06 $692 −$692 -100%
Will Sanfrecce Hiroshima win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1,013 −$1,013 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 06 $1,764 −$1,764 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 06 $2,724 −$2,724 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 06 $8,143 −$8,143 -100%
Will Tōkyō Verdy win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $10,273 −$10,273 -100%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 06 $12,980 −$12,980 -100%
Will Vålerenga Fotball win on 2026-05-25? May 25 $3,735 +$2,848 +76%
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $1,528 +$1,965 +129%
Spread: AC Sparta Praha (-1.5) May 24 $551 +$534 +97%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $17,709 +$5,415 +31%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $14,675 +$16,059 +109%
Will D.C. United SC win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $3,321 +$2,858 +86%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 214.5 May 24 $3,577 +$3,335 +93%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 216.5 May 24 $3,758 +$3,951 +105%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $5,654 +$6,187 +109%
Will Real Betis Balompié vs. Levante UD end in a draw? May 23 $3,083 +$1,163 +38%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $7,691 +$7,171 +93%
Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $8,668 −$8,668 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $12,817 +$11,647 +91%
Will FC Baník Ostrava win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $1,785 +$1,732 +97%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 23 $16,662 +$14,339 +86%
Dallas Wings vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 173.5 May 23 $661 −$661 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 106.5 May 23 $790 −$790 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 May 23 $4,986 −$4,986 -100%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 May 21 $4,328 −$4,328 -100%
Will LDU de Quito win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $4,565 −$4,565 -100%
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5 May 21 $13,391 −$13,391 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 21 $17,933 −$17,933 -100%
Will SK Brann win on 2026-05-10? May 20 $9,017 +$8,242 +91%
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) May 20 $1,527 +$1,740 +114%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 221.5 May 19 $1,412 −$1,412 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 3.5 May 18 $5,369 +$4,621 +86%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5) May 18 $16,004 +$16,165 +101%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $5,897 −$5,897 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $9,352 −$9,352 -100%
Will OGC Nice win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $1,902 +$5,845 +307%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $3,265 +$5,885 +180%
SS Lazio vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 2.5 May 16 $2,847 −$2,847 -100%
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Girona FC: O/U 2.5 May 16 $4,210 −$4,210 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $5,307 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $5,897 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $5,897 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 48¢ $14,024 6h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $10,156 25h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 51¢ $4,501 31h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $926 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $926 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $949 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $949 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $507 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $6,085 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $10,141 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $3,323 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $2,231 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $2,326 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $3,988 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 47¢ $932 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $2,406 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $2,363 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 48¢ $5,078 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 50¢ $3,538 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 50¢ $4,718 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 50¢ $2,948 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 50¢ $5,897 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 50¢ $5,897 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 50¢ $3,538 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 50¢ $3,520 4d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 49¢ $4,670 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42,120.35 · official $42,120.35 (match) · 431 history records