Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:49:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8d5b…03a5 other 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$158 (-10%) realized −$114 · open −$44
Gross ROI / mkt -56% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip
Net edge-60%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%4W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$881now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$132
7 days+$132
14 days+$132
30 days+$132
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$170
sports 19% +$6
world 12% +$92
politics 12% −$61
crypto 5% −$10
culture 3% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-60.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +44.0% +30.3% 100% 100% +30.3%
≤30d 3 +44.0% +30.3% 100% 100% +30.3%
≤90d 13 -56.2% -60.3% 31% 31% -25.9%
all 13 -56.2% -60.3% 31% 31% -25.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -60.3% 31% -25.9%
10% -64.1% 31% -33.0%
15% -67.6% 23% -39.5%
20% -70.8% 8% -45.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -56% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -77% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$33 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$881
Realized−$114
Unrealized−$44
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses4 / 9
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions8
Markets (closed)13 / 21
History coverage78d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 34¢ 32¢ $300 $287 −$13 (-4%)
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 40¢ 44¢ $200 $218 +$18 (+9%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 86¢ $100 $108 +$8 (+8%)
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 76¢ $50 $70 +$20 (+40%)
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 60¢ $20 $37 +$17 (+86%)
Will Cape Verde finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 52¢ 18¢ $100 $36 −$64 (-64%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 25¢ 12¢ $55 $27 −$28 (-51%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? Jun 24 $100 +$59 +59%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Jun 24 $100 +$33 +33%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $101 +$40 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 05 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 05 $10 −$10 -96%
Madrid Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Flavio Cobolli Apr 28 $10 −$10 -97%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Apr 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-04-10? Apr 10 $50 −$49 -97%
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? Apr 07 $100 +$38 +38%
Will Kateryna Lagno win the 2026 FIDE Women's Candidates Tournament? Apr 07 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Apr 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 07 $99 −$99 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 1h
Will Senegal be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 34¢ $306 1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $204 4d
Will Cape Verde finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou BUY Yes 52¢ $101 16d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 16d
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 16d
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 16d
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 49d
Madrid Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Flavio Cobolli BUY Daniil Medvedev 10¢ $10 56d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 69d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY No 75¢ $100 69d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? BUY No 63¢ $100 69d
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-04-10? BUY Yes $50 74d
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? SELL Yes 94¢ $138 77d
Will Kateryna Lagno win the 2026 FIDE Women's Candidates Tournament? BUY Yes 30¢ $50 77d
Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? BUY No $50 77d
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $55 77d
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? BUY Yes 68¢ $100 77d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? BUY Yes 35¢ $99 77d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $881.22 · official $881.22 (match) · 25 history records