Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:41:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8d5b…c798 sports 79 markets active 1h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-3%) realized −$5 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%35W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$15
14 days+$17
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% +$11
crypto 40% −$11
weather 16% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +50.5% +36.2% 78% 78% +29.4%
≤30d 28 -1.0% -10.4% 50% 50% +1.5%
≤90d 77 -7.4% -16.3% 45% 45% -12.8%
all 77 -7.4% -16.3% 45% 45% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 45% -12.8%
10% -24.3% 42% -21.1%
15% -31.6% 38% -28.8%
20% -38.3% 34% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$5
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses35 / 42
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)77 / 79
History coverage75d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs FUT Esports 35¢ 26¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-28%)
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs XLG Gaming 31¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 15 $2 +$1 +67%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $10 +$7 +73%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clut Jun 15 $2 +$1 +62%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $2 +$3 +146%
Counter-Strike: B8 Academy vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Eur Jun 15 $2 +$1 +50%
Map Handicap: OLDBOYS PL (-1.5) vs Falcons Force (+1.5) Jun 15 $2 +$3 +169%
Counter-Strike: Falcons Force vs OLDBOYS- (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Jun 15 $6 +$5 +88%
Map Handicap: KOL (-1.5) vs Leo Team (+1.5) Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Jun 10 $5 −$5 -99%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - United21 Playoffs Jun 07 $2 +$1 +57%
Counter-Strike: HyperSpirit vs Atreides (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qual Jun 07 $51 −$2 -4%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs GenOne (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1 −$1 -99%
Valorant: SwimTrek Blue vs Shopify Rebellion Gold (BO5) - VCT Game Cha Jun 07 $7 +$5 +67%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $1 +$1 +67%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $10 +$17 +165%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe S Jun 04 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: HyperSpirit vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Close Jun 04 $2 −$2 -99%
Valorant: IGZIST vs AGELITE (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Jun 04 $2 −$2 -99%
Valorant: Fennel vs QT DIG∞ (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Jun 04 $2 −$2 -99%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $1 +$1 +83%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $1 +$1 +86%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 04 $1 +$1 +97%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $1 −$1 -99%
Game Handicap: NS (-1.5) vs DN SOOPers (+1.5) May 28 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May May 10 $2 +$1 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on May May 09 $1 $0 -35%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 09 $1 +$1 +134%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on Ap Apr 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on April 12 Apr 12 $1 $0 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 62°F or higher on April 12? Apr 12 $2 −$1 -63%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on April 11 Apr 12 $3 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 53°F or below on April 11? Apr 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Ap Apr 11 $5 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 11? Apr 11 $1 +$3 +300%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Ap Apr 11 $2 −$2 -81%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Ap Apr 11 $3 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Ap Apr 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Ap Apr 10 $4 −$1 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on April 9? Apr 10 $1 +$2 +156%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on April 10? Apr 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on Ap Apr 09 $1 +$1 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on April 8? Apr 09 $1 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on Ap Apr 09 $1 +$1 +69%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on April 8? Apr 09 $1 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on Ap Apr 08 $8 −$8 -98%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on Ap Apr 08 $4 −$4 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 34¢ $5 1h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY XLG Gaming 31¢ $4 10h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 37¢ $4 19h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY SPARTA 59¢ $2 38h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 40¢ $2 38h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clut BUY Team Nemesis 61¢ $2 38h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 57¢ $10 39h
Map Handicap: KOL (-1.5) vs Leo Team (+1.5) BUY KOLESIE 35¢ $3 6d
Counter-Strike: B8 Academy vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Eur BUY Donstu Esports 66¢ $2 6d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group BUY KOLESIE 58¢ $5 6d
Counter-Strike: Falcons Force vs OLDBOYS- (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe BUY OLDBOYS- 53¢ $5 6d
Map Handicap: OLDBOYS PL (-1.5) vs Falcons Force (+1.5) BUY OLDBOYS- 37¢ $2 6d
Counter-Strike: Falcons Force vs OLDBOYS- (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe BUY OLDBOYS- 52¢ $1 6d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY Karmine Corp 27¢ $5 8d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY Karmine Corp 33¢ $5 8d
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - United21 Playoffs BUY UNiTY esports 63¢ $2 9d
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs GenOne (BO3) - European Pro League Serie BUY GenOne 31¢ $1 9d
Counter-Strike: HyperSpirit vs Atreides (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qual BUY Atreides 51¢ $25 9d
Counter-Strike: HyperSpirit vs Atreides (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qual SELL HyperSpirit 49¢ $19 9d
Counter-Strike: HyperSpirit vs Atreides (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qual BUY HyperSpirit 50¢ $20 9d
Counter-Strike: HyperSpirit vs Atreides (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qual BUY Atreides 51¢ $5 9d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY G2 53¢ $1 9d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY MIBR 50¢ $1 9d
Valorant: SwimTrek Blue vs Shopify Rebellion Gold (BO5) - VCT Game Cha BUY SwimTrek Blue 60¢ $7 10d
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe S BUY KOLESIE 61¢ $1 12d
Counter-Strike: HyperSpirit vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Close BUY HyperSpirit 53¢ $2 12d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY M80 59¢ $1 12d
Valorant: IGZIST vs AGELITE (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY AGELITE 56¢ $2 12d
Valorant: Fennel vs QT DIG∞ (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY Fennel 56¢ $2 12d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $10 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.51 · official $6.51 (match) · 146 history records