Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:19:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
8D 0x8d58…b32a crypto 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$10 (-8%) realized +$9 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate70%14W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$19
sports 40% −$4
crypto 11% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -22.4% -29.8% 50% 30% -14.1%
≤30d 10 -22.4% -29.8% 50% 30% -14.1%
≤90d 10 -22.4% -29.8% 50% 30% -14.1%
all 20 -6.3% -15.2% 70% 40% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 40% -12.4%
10% -23.3% 30% -20.8%
15% -30.7% 20% -28.4%
20% -37.5% 15% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$9
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses14 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage107d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 18¢ 2¢ $21 $2 −$19 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6 $0 +1%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $27 +$1 +5%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $14 −$1 -7%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $18 +$5 +25%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +27%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -80%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $6 +$3 +50%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -46%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Mar 01 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Mar 01 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Mar 01 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Mar 01 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Mar 01 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Mar 01 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Mar 01 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Mar 01 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Mar 01 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Mar 01 $1 +$1 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 90¢ $5 1h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 90¢ $5 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $28 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 84¢ $3 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $2 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $2 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 97¢ $5 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $2 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 1h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 80¢ $1 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 2h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 82¢ $1 2h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $11 2h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 2h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 2h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 2h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 2h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 2h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $1 4h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $23 24h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $4 24h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 25h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 25h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $2 25h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 25h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.29 · official $2.29 (match) · 66 history records