Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:24:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8d58…3728 other 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,383 (-55%) realized −$1,383 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -56% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -61% what you keep after slip
Net edge-61%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%6W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$488
7 days−$1,403
14 days−$1,446
30 days−$1,446
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$939
sports 30% −$437
crypto 3% −$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-59.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -75.4% -77.8% 18% 18% -75.7%
≤30d 23 -55.5% -59.7% 26% 26% -62.2%
≤90d 23 -55.5% -59.7% 26% 26% -62.2%
all 23 -55.5% -59.7% 26% 26% -62.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -59.7% 26% -62.2%
10% -63.6% 26% -65.9%
15% -67.1% 22% -69.2%
20% -70.3% 9% -72.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -58% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -55% · $-wt -58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -89% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$106 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$1,383
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses6 / 17
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage11d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: France (-1.5) France 77¢ 76¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $73 −$71 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $71 +$23 +33%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $202 −$202 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -98%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $305 −$300 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $151 −$150 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $195 +$79 +41%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $303 −$300 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$45 +44%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$75 +146%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$49 +96%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $51 −$39 -76%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $109 −$108 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $202 +$81 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 77¢ $20 20m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes $71 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 81¢ $94 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 60¢ $71 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 18h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 28h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 28h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $202 28h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $18 39h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 43¢ $305 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $101 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $151 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $58 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $195 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $303 6d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $148 6d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 6d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $73 7d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 72¢ $52 7d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $51 7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 92¢ $100 9d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes $12 9d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 9d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.87 · official $19.87 (match) · 36 history records